Almost Daily Grant's

“Almost Daily” is the end-of-day delectation from Grant’s.

ADG tells you what happened. It speculates on what may happen and tracks and develops Grant’s themes. Look for it after the New York close of trading—almost daily.

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Tuesday, April 2, 2019

They mostly come at night, mostly

It’s alive!  Just after midnight eastern time, the price of bitcoin surged by as much as 23% to cross back over $5,000 for the first time since November, while remaining 15% in the green this afternoon.  
What accounts for the abrupt liftoff in the world’s premier cryptocurrency? One potential clue is the nearly identical level of activity in tether, the purportedly dollar-backed crypto. While bitcoin (with an aggregate market value of $83.3 billion) has logged $18.7 billion of trading volume in the past 24 hours, the much-smaller tether (market value: $2.1 billion) has registered $18.8 billion over the same period, according to data from By comparison, ethereum, which sports a market cap of $16.6 billion, has seen 24 hour trading volume of $8.5 billion.
For more on tether, see the Sept. 8, 2017 edition of Grant’s

I'm a hog for you baby

It’s been a tough road for the U.S. farming industry, which is seemingly beset on all sides. Agricultural commodity prices remain low, with spot corn and soybean currently fetching $3.62 and $8.99 per bushel, respectively, each roughly 22% below their respective 10-year average prices.  
Meanwhile, the ongoing Sino-American trade war continues to crimp overseas demand, as the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that soybean deliveries to China fell more than 80% year-over-year since September. That helped push soybean stocks to a record 3.7 billion bushels as of year-end 2018.  
By the same token, the USDA forecast Friday that corn plantings will rise 4.1% in 2019 to 92.8 million this year, an unwelcome development considering that “American silos are already bulging with the grain,” according to Bloomberg. Adding insult to injury, devastating floods have afflicted large swaths of the Midwest during the heart of spring planting season.  
The USDA estimates that net farm incomes plunged 16% year-over-year in 2018 to $63.1 billion, down from more than $120 billion as recently as 2013.  Rising operating costs play a prominent role in that shrinkage. According to the All Farms Index tabulated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the prices received component fell to 84.9 in January from 95.1 in June, while prices paid registered 109.3 and has remained north of 100 since 2011. 
Source:  The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Things are particularly grim in Minnesota and surrounding states. The Minneapolis Fed reports that in-state farmers have seen total input costs for seed, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel and electricity rise by 50% since 2006, after adjusting for CPI-measured inflation. As a result, Minnesota farmers reported real median net income of $26,055 last year, down 8% from 2017 and the lowest figure since the early 1980’s, per an estimate from Dale Nordquist with the University of Minnesota’s Center for Farm Financial Management. 
Unsurprisingly, that one-two punch is leading to increasing distress. The Minneapolis Fed reports that the ninth district (encompassing Minnesota, Wisconsin, North and South Dakota and Montana) has seen farm bankruptcies rise to more than 100 in the 12 months ended in December, up from 46 in calendar 2015. 
As farmers struggle under the weight of low prices, bulging stockpiles and the wrath of mother nature, Grant’s asked grains expert and paid-up subscriber Keith Bronstein whether a supply disruption could augur better days ahead:
The flooding is currently a localized disaster for those producers in areas affected.
Can this become sufficiently widespread to have a true impact on U S production of row crops? The answer is a resounding yes, but it is too soon to make that statement. Early planting is a boon to yields and, given relatively depressed prices, it is easy to imagine farmers making extensive use of crop insurance policies if things get very late. I think we need to revisit this in 2.5 weeks to see how conditions have changed (or not) as snow melt and runoff and rain or lack thereof play themselves out over this period.
In summary, some notable areas are experiencing great misfortune but it is not yet a “national” story.
One farm commodity that has decisively broken higher is hogs. The emergence of African swine fever in China has led to the culling of an estimated 100 million hogs, a figure that compares to the U.S. inventory of 74.3 million hogs as of the first quarter. That sudden shortage of Chinese supply has spurred a major change in world fundamentals. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities analyst at INTL FCStone, Inc., estimates that “hog feeding in China is down by more than 30%, while some estimates coming out of China are much higher than that.” The Farm Journal notes that replacing a 31% decline in Chinese output “would require all of the annual production of Canada, the U.S., Mexico and Brazil.” 
That supply swing is already having a major impact, as lean hog prices have jumped to $84 per hundredweight, up 58% since Feb. 22. Bronstein observes: 
China will be an increasingly aggressive buyer of pork around the world yet is not the only place experiencing the spread of this particular disease. . . China is restricting imports from Vietnam to try and preclude a more aggressive disease spread. 
North America, probably thanks to distance and very advanced containment regimens, seems pretty safe now. North America should have an expanding hog population and expanding exports. With cheap feed, it’s a pretty good business to be in.

Recap April 2

A quiet day for stocks saw the S&P 500 test either side of unchanged early before settling into a sideways drift, while Treasurys rebounded from yesterday’s selloff as the 10-year yield dropped three basis points to 2.47%.  
Commodities continued their recent rip, as the CRB Index finished at its best level since late November.  That move is all the more impressive considering the U.S. Dollar Index also finished green and remains near a 52-week high. 
- Philip Grant

Friday, October 11, 2019

Space force
From Bloomberg

Dine and dash
The struggles continue for the restaurant industry,

Recap Oct. 11

Thursday, October 10, 2019

The King's Speech
A job opening, on LinkedIn

P.O. Box
It's a gusher

Recap Oct. 10

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

ADG 10/9: How to train your Draghi
A new frontier in "whatever it takes."

Recap Oct. 9

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

QT, we hardly knew yee
This afternoon,

The dreadful wind and rain
A major snowstorm

Recap Oct. 8

Monday, October 7, 2019

He said it
Here's President Trump today, on Twitter:

Put it on the tab

Recap Oct. 7

Friday, October 4, 2019

Now is the winter of our streaming content
Amazon, Inc. and Walt Disney Co. are feuding over terms which the former would carry the latter’s

Discovery channel
The renewed bloodletting in the energy patch has seen West Texas Intermediate crude

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Reach and pull
As bond yields the world over continue to hug the ground, issuers reach for the sky.

Recap Oct. 3

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Utah, get me two

Tandem bicycle
Change is in the air at PMI, the trading division of

Recap Oct. 1

Monday, September 30, 2019

Under the hood
According to research from Morgan Stanley,

Today, troubled U.K.-based closed-end investment fund Woodford Patient Capital Trust plc.

Recap Sept. 30

Friday, September 27, 2019

Say it ain't so
Spotted yesterday in Gramercy

One-stop shop

Recap Sept. 27

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Dead air
The timing could hardly be worse.

Recap Sept. 26

Recap Sept. 26

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Sentiment check
Karz for Kidz, 2019 edition.

Ya gotta believe

Recap Sept. 25

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Banks for nothing
He’s positive that rates should be negative.

Recap Sept. 24

Monday, September 23, 2019

If you build it

At least eyeballs are countable.

Recap Sept. 23

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Masa of leverage

Polonius, call your office

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Recap Sept. 17

After the deal
Four years ago, roll-ups were the vogue of Wall Street,

Monday, September 16, 2019

Price gusher

Recap Sept. 16

Friday, September 13, 2019

Everything burns

Recap Sept. 13

Thursday, September 12, 2019

The science of central banking
Investor eyes were trained towards Frankfurt

How now Kowtow

Recap Sept. 12

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Flow rider
According to a recent report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch,

Recap Sept. 11

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Flickering lights

Recap Sept. 10
Yesterday, California utility PG&E Corp. (PCG on the NYSE)

Monday, September 9, 2019

Dueling banjos
From NBC4 New York:

T party
Today, hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. disclosed a $3.2 billion stake in AT&T, Inc. (T on the NYSE)

Recap Sept.9

Friday, September 6, 2019

Vision zero
The office space company intent on “elevating the world’s consciousness” is set to downsize.

Recap Sept. 6

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Let's pretend
During an interview with Bloomberg radio yesterday,

Fan depreciation day
The loan machine comes alive once more.

Recap Sept. 5

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Devalue investor
The arrival of September brings $100 billion in additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

Recap Sept. 3

Friday, August 30, 2019

Too much info
The Real Deal reports today

Pro AM
According to the Financial Times,

Recap Aug. 30

Thursday, August 29, 2019

He said it

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss.

As the world turns
The recent bull stampede in rates,

Recap Aug. 29

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Falling off the bike

Recap Aug. 28

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

The final frontier

Recap Aug. 27

Monday, August 26, 2019

Fiat accompli
As the European Central Bank prepares for its policy meeting on Sept. 12,

Recap Aug. 26

Friday, August 23, 2019

Engineering major
3G Capital giveth, 3G Capital taketh away.

Recap Aug. 23

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Silver slugger
According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department

Boom goes the dynamite
A blip on the radar, or something more?

Recap Aug. 22

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Bogey board
The latest dive in interest rates

Recap Aug. 6

Monday, August 5, 2019

Shine a light
The public debut of The We Company,

Recap Aug. 5

Friday, August 2, 2019

I hate when that happens
From Nine News Australia:

Climate change field trip
From the New York Post on Wednesday:

See that my grave is kept clean
This roll-up is not exactly on a roll.

Recap Aug. 2

Thursday, August 1, 2019

Heart of darkness

QT progress report

Recap Aug. 1

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Triple threat
Fed chair Jerome Powell accomplished

General hospital
This morning, General Electric Corp. (GE on the NYSE)

Recap July 31

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Golden years
From the New York Post:

Pay now, grow later
As of last Friday, 44% of the S&P 500 had reported earnings

More where that came from
It’s a done deal.

Recap July 30

Monday, July 29, 2019

You can't do that to our pledges!

Buyer beware
The London Stock Exchange Group plc. today confirmed reports

Auditing Potemkin village

Recap July 29

Friday, July 26, 2019

What does he know about safety?

Financing secured

Easy come easy go
From the Rio Times:

For whom the bell tolls
This afternoon, T-Mobile U.S., Inc won approval

Recap July 26

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Keep digging
Today, the European Central Bank held a stand-pat meeting,

Yellow light
As we close out month 121 of the longest economic expansion on record,

QT Progress report

Recap July 25

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Chapter two: The next chapter

Recap July 23

Monday, July 22, 2019

Technical analysis
From the Daily Beast:

Hello Neumann
With the stock market near all-time highs and money losing IPOs seemingly coming to market daily,

Modern monetary medicine
Let the bloodletting commence.

Recap July 22

Friday, July 19, 2019

What we have here is a failure to communicate
Following yesterday’s remarks from New York Fed president John Williams,

Talking his book
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK on the NYSE) reported second quarter results this morning,

Recap July 19

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Fake cruise

He said he said she said

Three's a crowd
Business is booming for a titan of private equity.

QT Progress report

Recap July 18

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

The Wire
Yesterday, California governor Gavin Newsom signed Assembly Bill 1054,

Recap July 17

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Float upstream
Yesterday, China reported that

Recap July 16

Monday, July 15, 2019

Get your shinebox
A friend checks in from the Long Island Expressway:

Swamp things
A trio of corporate situations unfolding in Washington, D.C.

Recap July 15

Friday, July 12, 2019

Bears on vacation
From June 29 at the Omni Hotel Mount Washington,

From Bloomberg Opinion today:

Merger, she wrote
A pair of notable deal-related

Stag party
A whiff of stagflation in the heavy summer air?

Recap July 12

Thursday, July 11, 2019

We're gonna need a bigger boat
Mexican finance minister Carlos Urzúa resigned

QT progress report

Recap July 11

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Detergent needed
Canada’s housing market continues to bifurcate.

Recap July 9

Monday, July 8, 2019

Hong Kong rumbles
Massive protests

Prosperity gospel
On Saturday, Turkish President Recep Erdogan announced he fired

Recap July 8

Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Justice league
Two down, one to go?

Car man
Auto executive Lee Iacocca,

Three musketeers
Yesterday was a busy one for the future of central banking,

Recap July 3

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Real deal
On Friday, online luxury consignment retailer The RealReal, Inc. (REAL on the Nasdaq)

Recap July 2

Monday, July 1, 2019

Expansion team
Today, the post-2009 streak of economic growth rolls into a record 121st month,

Color me repressed
Over the weekend, Agustín Carstens,

Recap July 1

Friday, June 28, 2019

Fill 'er up
Oil prices continue their recovery from last fall’s swoon,

Recap June 28

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Time for a survey of recent happenings in leveraged loans.

QT progress report

Recap June 27

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Dance of the living dead

Recap June 25

Monday, June 24, 2019

Gig inequality
The New Republic,

Trump friends China
Whack-a-mole in the Middle Kingdom.

Recap June 24

Friday, June 21, 2019

Tricky Dix
Let's hit redial.

Recap June 21

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Chickens counted
Another step forward for the never-ending merger saga.

QT progress report

Recap June 20

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Wax on wax off
Cognitive dissonance reigns supreme,

Recap June 19

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

So much winning
“The cultural level of a nation is mirrored by its rate of interest: the higher a people’s intelligence and moral strength, the lower the rate of interest.”

Recap June 18

Monday, June 17, 2019

That was then
How the turntables have turned.

Everyone's a critic
A shocker this morning:

Recap June 17

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Liquidity shortage

Recovery room
Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury reported that Uncle Sam’s

QT Progress report

Recap June 13

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Inspector Gadget
Will the taxpayer say no más?

Recap June 11

Monday, June 10, 2019

Alberta king

Recap June 10

Friday, June 7, 2019

Step Brothers 2
Alternative lodging by the Bay

Right place wrong time
Yesterday, Fitch Ratings downgraded Petróleos Mexicanos (A.K.A. Pemex)

Recap June 7

Thursday, June 6, 2019

Grand central
Following today's press conference

QT progress report

Recap June 6

Wednesday, June 5, 2019

The world is yours
Received in the Grant’s inbox today,

The blind side
Forbes reports this afternoon that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers

Lobby horse
The Department of Defense’s forthcoming $10 billion cloud computing award,

Recap June 5

Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Minority report
Many unhappy returns.

Today's debt hearings
An analysis of the leveraged loan market

Recap June 4

Monday, June 3, 2019

Bar none

Dots plotted

Recap June 3

Friday, May 31, 2019

Hail Mary

This is what happens Larry

Trading sardines?
What selloff?

Recap May 31

Thursday, May 30, 2019

With a side of fries
Yesterday, the Department of Energy

Down in the bottom
Credit-centric consumer business models are in focus today,

QT Progress report

Recap May 30

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

ETF phone home
Time to batten down the hatches?

Recap May 28

Friday, May 24, 2019

This is no joke.

Damage control
Big doings in the Middle Kingdom.

House of cards
Bloomberg asserts today that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s

Dem bones
Yesterday, French retailer Rallye S.A.,

Recap May 24

Thursday, May 23, 2019

He said it
Sports talk radio mainstay and overall renaissance man Mike Francesa

Fake schmooze
Today, Facebook, Inc. (FB on the Nasdaq) said

Yield yodel

QT Progress report

Recap May 23

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

In the shop
The auto industry caught a break last week,

Recap May 22

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Peanut allergy
The Gauls are on the rampage

Recap May 21

Monday, May 20, 2019

Concession stand
One down, two to go?

Track changes
Morningstar reports today

Recap May 20

Friday, May 17, 2019

The sound of silence
An emailed invitation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

Fruit flies
Chinese fruit prices have been on the march,

Influx capacitor
Yesterday, VanEck Securities Corp. rolled out

Recap May 17

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Looney tunes
From CNN:

Post no bills
An update on Post Holdings, Inc., the cereal and processed food maker

QT Progress report

Recap May 16

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Can you hear me now?
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Sprint Corp. (S on the NYSE)

Recap May 14

Monday, May 13, 2019

Cut rate
The latest escalation of the U.S./China

Swing LO
This morning, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) unveiled

Recap May 13

Friday, May 10, 2019

Bank teller
From Reuters:

Mr. Erdogan's wild ride

Thursday, May 9, 2019

To infinity, and beyond
A slide from SoftBank

He said it
Art Cashin,

Suffer for your art
Retail magnate Yusaku Maezawa, founder of Zozo, Inc.

QT Progress report

Recap May 9

Monday, May 6, 2019

Drivers' side
From the Associated Press:

Service industry
The Toronto Real Estate Board released its monthly report for April today,

Recap May 6

Friday, May 3, 2019

Ticker tailor
Speaking on CNBC today,

If you build it
From last weekend's edition of the London Sunday Times:

The buck stops over there
In a Wednesday speech in London, European Central Bank

Recap May 3

Thursday, May 2, 2019

Downhill from here
On Tuesday, Mexico’s state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex)

QT progress report

Recap May 2

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Cross check
This morning, McDonald’s Corp. (MCD on the NYSE)

Recap April 30

Monday, April 29, 2019

Come on in, the water's warm

Owe negative
The Chinese economy continues to muddle along,

Recap April 29

Friday, April 26, 2019

'gram reaper
Trouble in paradise, 2019 style.

Augean stable
Yesterday, New York attorney general’s office announced

Rubber duck
This morning, Uber Technologies, Inc.

Recap April 26

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Modern monetary practice
At the end of today’s policy communique, the Bank of Japan

Sincerely yours
Things are once again heating up in emerging markets,

QT Progress report

Recap April 25

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Beast of burden
This morning, AT&T, Inc. (T on the NYSE) reported

Recap April 24

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

So, they'll have two?
An afternoon headline from The Wall Street Journal:

Cyprus hill

Kicked in the 'coin
Timing is everything.

Recap April 23

Monday, April 22, 2019

Meet the new boss
This morning, The Kraft Heinz Co.

Sold to you
China’s Shanghai Composite fell by nearly 2% today,

Recap April 22

Thursday, April 18, 2019

Born on the bayou, Inc.’s Web Services (AWS) unit

QT progress report

Recap April 18

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Sick Burn
Revenge of the Squares?

Indication of interest
Today, Bank of America Corp. (BAC on the NYSE)

Recap April 16

Monday, April 15, 2019

I really think so
Last Thursday, European Central Bank

Strangers things
A new frontier in innovation: Annoyance-as-a-service.

Down the rabbit hole
In a recent research note,

From hunger
Analytics firm TDn2K reports

Recap April 15

Friday, April 12, 2019

A TAM too far

Faulty transmission

Thursday, April 11, 2019

A permanently low plateau
“As I say, we wish they hadn't raised,”

Tip of the iceberg
From Caixin

Field of dreams
The Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco) made history

QT Progress report

Recap April 11

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

I'm your huckleberry
“U.S. hedge funds from time to time have appeared in this country over the last 10 years,

Recap April 10

Monday, April 8, 2019

Discount double check
The passive price war goes stealth.

Permanently high plateau 2.0

Cheez whiz

Recap April 8

Friday, April 5, 2019

Nevertheless, he persisted
Today, the Nikkei Asian Review reports that Nomura Holdings, Inc.

Recap April 5

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Off to sea once more
The May 30, 2014 issue of Grant’s featured a bullish analysis

QT progress report

Recap April 4

Monday, April 1, 2019

Motley Crew
Asset prices are off to the races,

Recap April 1

Friday, March 29, 2019

Blocked number
It’s crunch time for the proposed all-stock merger between Sprint Corp. (S on the NYSE) and T-Mobile U.S., Inc. (TMUS on the Nasdaq).

Recap March 29

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Prognosis negative
Today, the Financial Times reports that Deutsche Bank A.G.

QT progress report

Recap March 28

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Play ball!
A historical quirk in tomorrow’s Opening Day schedule.

Back to the well
This morning, the Turkish offshore lira borrowing rate briefly touched 1,350%

Recap March 27

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

TRY hard
On Friday, the Turkish lira plummeted by more than 6% against the dollar.

Depends where you sit
The hotly anticipated public debut of Lyft, Inc. is drawing a wide range of reactions.

Recap March 26

Monday, March 25, 2019

Platform heels
The Financial Times’ Alphaville blog relays today that a piece of cyclical history is now available on eBay:

Turf wars
Earlier today, former Fed chair turned

Private investigations
On Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed suit against private

Recap March 25

Friday, March 22, 2019

Still the smartest guys in the room
From The Wall Street Journal:

Salt in the wound
It’s been a smooth ride for third world debtors,

Recap March 22

Thursday, March 21, 2019

You're un-fired
Yesterday’s Fed meeting featured a dovish trifecta.

Canada goosed
Things are no great shakes in the Great White North.

QT Progress report

Recap March 21

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

From Reuters:

Our man in Rio
“Waste places” no more?

Recap March 19