Almost Daily Grant's

“Almost Daily” is the new, end-of-day delectation from Grant’s.

ADG tells you what happened. It speculates on what may happen and tracks and develops Grant’s themes. Look for it after the New York close of trading—almost daily.

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Friday, May 25, 2018

As the Memorial Day weekend is upon us,

Thursday, May 24, 2018

CoCo beware
What bull market?

QT progress report

Recap May 24

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Communication breakdown
Time for plan B.

Slumbering samurai

Recap May 23

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Under the hood
No ZIRP? No problem, mostly.

Recap May 22

Monday, May 21, 2018

Debt decision
Price action in the stock market appears healthy,

A crowded table
It was an un-bullish omen.

Recap May 21

Friday, May 18, 2018

Fun with filings
Interesting doings of late in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s EDGAR database.

Recap May 18

Thursday, May 17, 2018

BEN down this road
Hasenstab to the rescue!

QT progress report

Recap May 17

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Where the rubber meets the road
The second-longest postwar expansion on record continues at a humdrum pace.

Recap May 15

Monday, May 14, 2018

Harder they come
It’s a brave new world in the credit market.

Recap May 14

Friday, May 11, 2018

Inter-species diplomacy
From the New York Post:

Hotel California
We can say this for emerging markets: They are definitely not boring.

Recap May 11

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Credit check
Bond bulls caught a reprieve.

QT progress report

Recap May 10

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

We have ice cream at home, kids
It was an incongruous sight in the midst of what is already the U.S.’ second-longest post-World War II economic expansion, even before the tax cuts.

Recap May 9

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Ball four
Escalator temporarily out of order.

Recap May 8

Monday, May 7, 2018

The other side of oil

Recap May 7

Friday, May 4, 2018

With the kung-fu grip
From the Associated Press:

Pain in the ARS
Mr. Market is manic.

Recap May 4

Thursday, May 3, 2018

Run for the roses
Steady as she goes in the energy patch

QT progress report

Recap May 3

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Emerge overkill
The buck is breaking out.

Recap May 1

Monday, April 30, 2018

Persistence epitomized
Could this lingering courtship finally be consummated?

Recap April 30

Thursday, April 26, 2018

Your Face is my case
These results helped make some new friends.

Recap April 26

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

"Smart contracts"
A short story, in two parts:

Dollar bill blues
Is this as good as it gets?

Recap April 25

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Are Tesla or Netflix bonds a little too boring for you?

Impulse control
Two debt-laden ships pass in the night.

Recap April 24

Monday, April 23, 2018

Heads I win
The interest rate-beat goes on.

Recap April 23

Friday, April 20, 2018

In Memoriam
Martin Whitman, value investor,

Peas in a pod
We’ll see if this one is better than cubic zirconia.

Recap April 20

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Notable quotable
Bill Miller, of Legg Mason Capital Management fame, on Twitter this morning:

In season
Tax day has come and gone, but, for holders of U.S. government debt, a different sort of confiscation continues apace.

QT Progress report

Recap April 19

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Fjord focus
“Global debt rose to a record $237 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2017, more than $70 trillion higher from a decade earlier,

Recap April 17

Monday, April 16, 2018

Well to do
It was not an ideal start to the week. Investors in National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV on the NYSE)

Recap April 16

Friday, April 13, 2018

Metaphor overload
From Wednesday’s edition of the Sacramento Bee:

Lending labyrinth
It’s still early, but 2018 could thus far be termed, the “Year of the Whipsaw.”

Recap April 13

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Passive aggressive
This Wall Street heavyweight still packs a punch.

QT progress report

Recap April 12

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Attention, deficit disorder
That recently-dormant beast called inflation is stirring.

Recap April 11

Monday, April 9, 2018

The Son also rises
This bull-market avatar is doubling down:

Recap April 9

Friday, April 6, 2018

The overpromised land
Terrific weather, a booming tech-led economy and lots to do: Who wouldn’t want to live in the City by the Bay?

Not just for Snickers bars
For all the talk of a trade war, China and the United States share major economic commonalities,

Recap April 6

Thursday, April 5, 2018

Vehicle vestibule

QT progress report

Recap April 5

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Cold Turkey
Most developed economies feature interest rates that are visible only through a magnifying glass.

I thought you were pre-med?
Spotify Technology S.A. made its publicly traded debut today,

Recap April 3

Monday, April 2, 2018

Dear Mr. Fantasy
Who's up for some reward-free risk?

Recap April 2

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Bund cake
This morning, German CPI rose by 1.6% year-over-year, just below the consensus expectation of 1.7%.

QT progress report

Recap March 31 and first quarter 2018

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Hodl on loosely
Ah, crypto-currencies.

Recap March 27

Monday, March 26, 2018

Tough but fair

Leverage on offer
If regulators on either side of the pond have their way, it will soon be time to say tata to the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor)

Recap March 26

Friday, March 23, 2018

Ahoy, polloi!
From Business Wire:

Cool Recep-tion
The dollar’s recent weakening against most world currencies has left one prominent exception:

Recap March 23

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Triple-B Gees
What does it mean when outsize moves in interest rates are met with little more than a shrug in corporate credit?

QT progress report

Recap March 22

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

It’s already been a long week for Mark Zuckerberg & Co.

Recap Mar. 20

Monday, March 19, 2018

History rhymes
An excerpt from a Bloomberg dispatch this morning,

Rebuttal rebuttal
On Mar. 11, the Bank for International Settlements sounded the alarm on the Canadian housing market,

Recap Mar. 19

Friday, March 16, 2018

Bots gone wild
Here’s a story that no one (not least your publisher) was expecting to see in Almost Daily Grant’s

If you build it, they will come?
Interbank borrowing rates, the machinations of the Swiss National Bank and cryptocurrencies are seemingly unrelated investment entities. But are they?

Recap Mar. 16

Thursday, March 15, 2018

QT Progress report

Deal derby

Recap Mar. 15

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

QE chronicles
If a bond yields nothing and no one trades it, does it even exist?

Golden ruberstamp
From the Boston Business Journal:

Recap Mar. 14

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Who will guard the guards themselves?
Yesterday’s edition of the Financial Times features a remarkable, and somewhat alarming, claim:

Poutine on the ritz
Former belle of the investment-ball Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (VRX on the NYSE and Toronto Stock Exchange) has been given the cold shoulder

Recap Mar. 13

Friday, March 9, 2018

We're gonna need a bigger moat
A dispatch from the New York Post:

In out of the cold
One needn’t strain too hard to find similarities between market conditions today and the late-1990’s bull stampede.

Recap Mar. 9

Thursday, March 8, 2018

Middleby earth
Investors were left hungry.

QT progress report

Recap March 8

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Sentiment check
The upcoming Toronto Real Estate Wealth Expo,

Hold the chicken ceviche
The geographic borders of the European Union are well defined.

Recap March 6

Monday, March 5, 2018

Uber stingy?
Some side hustles are more worthwhile than others.

Call in the Mounties
The arrival of the long awaited (or feared) B-20 mortgage regulations in the Great White North

Recap March 5

Friday, March 2, 2018

PE class
It’s good to be king.

Recap March 2

Thursday, March 1, 2018

Face bunker
The wolves continue to circle Facebook Inc. (FB on the Nasdaq),

QT progress report

Recap March 1

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Release the Kraken
After rebounding some 50% from its early-February interim nadir,

Treasury chest
Higher yields across nearly the entire spectrum of U.S. government and corporate bonds should be met with increased demand, right?

Recap Feb. 28

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Tone at the top
New Fed chairman Jerome Powell wasted no time in distinguishing himself

Endo times
Roll-ups can provide a magical investment ride – at least, that is, until the music stops.

Recap Feb. 27

Monday, February 26, 2018

Flowers out of your hair
The going rate for a one way 26 foot U-Haul rental from Las Vegas to San Jose will set you back just $121

Suggested retail price
On Friday afternoon, Reuters reported that the founding family of Nordstrom, Inc.,

Recap Feb. 26

Friday, February 23, 2018

Last weekend’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Daytona International Speedway featured some prominent financial zeitgeist.

Kenya hear me now
They say that bull markets climb a wall of worry. In the case of the sovereign credit market, this is a tall one.

Recap Feb. 23

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Sprinting to the order book
What risk aversion?

QT progress report

Recap Feb. 22

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Face news
It was a busy week in the news for the world’s preeminent social-media company, Facebook, Inc.

Short interest
We are back to the depths of the financial crisis – in interest rates.

Recap Feb. 20

Friday, February 16, 2018

A rose by any other name
Take it away, PetaPixel:

Soupy sales
You can’t call them Pollyannas.

Recap Feb. 16

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Crypto cottage industry
Reuters on the surge in cryptocurrency hedge funds:

Free climbing
Call it vertical integration, 2018-style.

QT Progress report

Recap Feb. 15

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Fed Zeppelin
If the Federal Reserve is worried about a financial-market accident amid rising rates and an inflationary resurgence, then they’ve done a good job bluffing.

Recap Feb. 14

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Headline of the day

The first seven weeks of 2018 have already set off more financial fireworks than all of 2017’s.

Recap Feb. 13

Monday, February 12, 2018

Out of the shadows

Recap Feb. 12

Friday, February 9, 2018

Workers of the world, unite!
A pair of probably unrelated dispatches from crypto-land:

Higher yield
The merry-go-round is in motion.

Recap Feb. 9

Thursday, February 8, 2018

Torn and Frayed
If you buy it, the EPS will come.

QT progress report

Recap Feb. 8

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Got rich
Let’s take a break from the market mayhem and enjoy the feel-good story

We thought we had it rough

Recap Feb. 6

Monday, February 5, 2018

A kind word for the 10-year

Vol holla

Recap Feb. 5

Friday, February 2, 2018

Prop betting in 2018
With the Super Bowl set to kick off in about 48 hours,

Very cold cereal
High debt and slow growth can be a perilous combination.

Recap Feb. 2

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Chinese channel checkers
It’s not quite scrounging for pennies in the sofa, but it’s close.

QT progress report

Recap Feb. 1

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

What's the matter Colonel Sanders, chicken?
Not all dividends are created equal.

Recap Jan. 31

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Texas hedge
What do short dollar, long equities, long oil and short options volatility trades have in common?

You are what you eat
Like a bolt from Olympus arrived this morning’s press release

Recap Jan. 30

Monday, January 29, 2018

Euphoria's step-children
To paraphrase former President Barack Obama, rising prices have consequences.

Recap Jan. 29

Friday, January 26, 2018

Role Tide
You gotta give the people what they want.

Soul patch
“Why are you all excited all of a sudden on shale? You know why, because you like to chit chat . . . you are an agent of disturbance,”

Recap Jan. 26

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Issue at hand
Up to the dais stepped European Central Bank boss man Mario Draghi today.

The first $25 trillion's the hardest

Recap Jan. 25

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Day traders delight
The revolution was not, in fact, televised.

Recap Jan. 23

Monday, January 22, 2018

Friend zone
You certainly can’t call them Pollyannas. In recent months, a number of higher ups at Facebook, Inc.

Recap Jan. 22

Friday, January 19, 2018

Any leeway on the baggage fee?
Score one for the TSA.

Coin star
It’s the future of money! It’s an empty vehicle of speculation! It’s . . . bitcoin!

Recap Jan. 19

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Galloping from value
Whoever said markets take the stairs up and the elevator down? For a tailor-made refutation of that axiom, we turn to The Boeing Company.

Recap Jan. 17

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Impulse purchase
Rising home prices are an economic salve of the highest order. Is the reverse also true?

Neutral zone infraction

Recap Jan. 16

Friday, January 12, 2018

Sword swallower
Debt: It’s what’s for dinner.

Trot to canter
A detailed look at the state of small and midsize companies comes from Golub Capital

Shake it off

Recap Jan. 12

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Three sheets
Out with the old, in with the new.

Just browsing
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA has got a friend somewhere.

Recap Jan. 11

Monday, January 8, 2018

Junkyard dog
A rising tide lifts all boats, and even a few rocks.

Recap Jan. 8

Friday, January 5, 2018

Sluggers wanted
How to generate ambitious returns in a market featuring precious few bargains?

Lender of resort

Recap Jan. 5

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Sprinting somewhere
They finally got their merger, sort of.

Recap Jan. 4

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Sweet and sour
Even in friendly markets, borrowing has its limits.

Recap Jan. 3

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Stone skipping
Parabolic price moves can make for some happy campers.

Ich bin ein bond bear
Last Friday’s release of German CPI for December surprised with a 1.6% year-over-year uptick,

Recap Jan. 2

Friday, December 29, 2017

Auld lang sign
On the eve of the eve of the New Year, we pause to take stock – actually no.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Paper pushers
Vertical integration: It’s not just for the manufacturers.

Ink blotter
USA Today reported on Monday the travails of Florida man

Recap Dec. 28

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Almost Daily Crypto
Bitcoin is so early-December.

Inflate gate
Take a bow, central bankers of the world!

Recap Dec. 12

Monday, December 11, 2017

HELOCopter money
The adage that “trees don’t grow to the sky” is being put to the test in the Great White North.

Security guard
Shares in over-the-counter name The Crypto Company,

Recap Dec. 11

Friday, December 8, 2017

Pik your battles
A follow-up on yesterday’s ADG

Chain, chain, chain
Is your bitcoin position burning a hole in your (virtual) pocket but fear missing out on more upside?

Macro and micro
In a Twitter bulletin this afternoon, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. writes

Recap Dec. 8

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Pik and choose
Pay-in-kind (PIK) toggles, a type of boomtime security in which the issuer has the option to pay its creditors not in cash,

Risk on, and on
From today’s Toronto Globe and Mail:

Recap Dec. 7

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Engine rev
In the 72 years since the conclusion of World War II, there have been 11 recessions, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research,

Recap Dec. 6

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Bond fun
It’s been remarkably easy sledding for the stock market of late.

Recap Dec. 5

Monday, December 4, 2017

Beanie babies redux
First came bitcoin, then came ICO’s, now comes:

Red sea
Rising short term interest rates (almost) the world over have been one defining characteristic of financial 2017.

Recap Dec. 4

Friday, December 1, 2017

Meet the new boss
Undoubtedly thanks to its white-knuckle price action and yuge rally of late, bitcoin has for the first time passed Donald Trump in Google search requests,

Energy saver
What if the supply glut that has bedeviled energy markets since 2014 is less severe than commonly believed?

Weapons of Mass Perfidy
Caixin Magazine reports yesterday that China Mingsheng bank,

Recap Dec. 1

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Prognosis negative
For all the peculiar price contortions that have characterized our post-crisis financial world,

Recap Nov. 30

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Price is might
Let’s take a brisk tour of the most exciting, confounding, lucrative and, yes, dangerous financial realm in recent memory:

Recap Nov. 28

Monday, November 27, 2017

Rich get richer
An update on the century bonds issued by the (99-year old) Republic of Austria

Tractor pull
No salmon for this bear.

Recap Nov. 27

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Almost Daily Variety Pack
A trio of bearish Grant’s calls have recently stumbled. We briefly return, free of self-congratulation, to each with an update.

Bone broth

On second thought

No refunds

Recap Nov. 21

Monday, November 20, 2017

Cereal acquirer
Fourth quarter results from St. Louis-headquartered food manufacturer Post Holdings, Inc., could be described as a little soggy,

Recap Nov. 20

Friday, November 17, 2017

World's smallest Veolin
It was only a matter of time, but the first triple-B-rated credit (that’s two notches above junk) in Europe has managed to place debt at a negative yield.

Command economy
Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” has a different connotation in Red China.

Recap Nov. 17

Thursday, November 16, 2017

On the other hand
Ahead of yesterday’s auction at Christie’s, which included an eye-watering $450.3 million price for Leonardo Da Vinci’s (disputed) "Salvator Mundi,”

Paging Hyman Minsky
“An excessive focus on stability will cause hesitation in pushing ahead with reforms and delays – a situation that could eventually lead to a ‘big crisis.’”

Recap Nov. 16

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

GE whiz
How ugly has the recent dive in General Electric’s stock price been?

Rate rout
Behold, the incredible disappearing yield curve.

Recap Nov. 14

Monday, November 13, 2017

It's easy to grin
Is the global shipping industry, long mired in a turgid slog amidst overcapacity and a lukewarm economic environment, finally springing to life?

Bull market here
The Nov. 7 edition of Investors Intelligence contained something of a milestone:

Recap Nov. 13

Friday, November 10, 2017

Dispatches from the upside down
Talk about lower-for-longer:

Recap Nov. 10

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Better than gold
“Billionaire’s row,” and “foreclosure auction” are not traditional neighbors on the written page, but 2017 has occasionally made for strange bedfellows.

Recap Nov. 9

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Cycle repair
Chinese peer-to-peer lender Ppdai Group, Inc. (it’s pronounced pee-pee-dye) is set to make its New York Stock Exchange debut on Friday,

Recap Nov. 8

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Top of the Rock
A bittersweet benchmark in the Land of the Rising Sun:

Where's that remote
Set your DVR’s:

Ephemeral ethereal
Techcrunch reports today that ethereum, the second largest crypto currency by market cap after bitcoin, is facing a significant technical problem.

Recap November 7

Monday, November 6, 2017

Iced 'tice
How much debt is too much?

Pool cleaner
As a bookend to the evident complacency shown by Altice bondholders, consider today’s €600 million, 10-year euro bond from Benton Harbor, Mich.-based Whirlpool Corp.

Recap November 6

Friday, November 3, 2017

Finish line
Is the Australian economic engine, long firing on all cylinders, finally beginning to falter?

Bjork Bucks
Attention crypto-loving experimental music fans!

Recap November 3

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Crème de la credit
The Mongolian 5 5/8s of 2023, down from initial price talk of 6 1/8

Frayed elastic
Good news first.

Recap November 2

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Keep on growing
An upbeat turn in the fortunes of U.S. employees, from deep in the heart of Texas:

Dad bod revisited
Under Armour, Inc. reported weaker than expected results for the third quarter and lowered fiscal year guidance this morning.

Recap October 31

Monday, October 30, 2017

Dollar dominated
Uncle Sam is feeling his oats.

Race to zero
A new salvo in the ETF price wars was fired today by Franklin Templeton Investments.

Recap October 30

Friday, October 27, 2017

2017, A Spaced Odyssey
From Bloomberg comes a short-list contender for headline of the year:

Little dipper

Recap October 27