Knowledge Center

Drawing from 35 years of in-depth research, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer offers you free access to selected articles via our Knowledge Center. Browse our topics and select an article to enjoy and share.


In the Archives below the Knowledge Center, subscribers may download whatever they wish. Non-subscribers may search the archives and download past issues at the cost of $125 per issue.

To license individual articles for reprint, please email us at reprints@grantspub.com

Feature Article

Gyro Gearloose redux .

The arc of monetary evolution is the subject at hand. A question for the dollar-holding subscribers of Grant’s: What’s really in your wallet?

Topics

Please click on a topic below to read individual stories

Articles of Interest:

Gold

"The road to confetti "

April 15 comes and goes but the federal debt stays and grows. The secrets of its life force are the topics at hand...

APR 22, 2016

Gold

"Monetary action agenda"

With respect to the radicalization of monetary policy, investors en masse resemble the sleepy frog in the warming saucepan. They don’t jump out while the jumping’s good.

NOV 14, 2014

Gold

"Let's bury the gold"

A friend proposes to strike it rich in gold by giving the public what it wants. What the public wants is mining stock. We know that by the stupendous valuations accorded mining companies at a time of stable gold prices. People want mines -- so let's give them mines, our friend proposes. Let's buy some gold, bury it, dig it up and sell it.

SEP 21, 1987

Financial History / Cycles

"Gyro Gearloose redux ."

The arc of monetary evolution is the subject at hand. A question for the dollar-holding subscribers of Grant’s: What’s really in your wallet?

FEB 26, 2016

Financial History / Cycles

"Inside ACE Securities’ HEL Trust, Series 2005-HE5"

The nation is running out of magazine covers on which to announce the coming collapse of house prices. From which fact it could be inferred that . . .

SEP 8, 2006

Financial History / Cycles

"The slowest asset"

In Houston, office rents are falling again, fully a decade after the Texas energy business stopped inflating and began deflating. Rents continue to fall in New York, too...

APR 24, 1992

Global Macro Stories

"The balance sheet that ate Switzerland"

Like a celebrity in flight from the paparazzi, the Swiss Confederation demands protection from its pesky admirers.

SEP 19, 2014

Global Macro Stories

"Beijing to Sydney"

Herewith an update on China (sinking), Australia (sympathetically sinking), and a handful of Grant's short-sale names (also sinking, except for the one that soared).

JUN 14, 2013

Global Macro Stories

"Nikkei put warrants"

The wonderful Herbert Stein remark about patience--"If something can't go on forever, it won't"--has been as good a motto as any to lose money by in this epic bull market.

JUL 7, 1989

Equity Longs

"The thrifts are coming! The thrifts are coming!"

A discussion of newly converted thrifts coming to the market.

OCT 29, 2010

Equity Longs

"Certifiably formerly toxic "

A discussion of the transformation of Innospec.

SEP 17, 2010

Equity Longs

"Pariahs’ club "

The stock market is, by our lights, absurd, but it is becoming slightly more symmetrically absurd. There is a growing list of cheap valuations to complement a considerably larger number of extravagant ones.

FEB 4, 2000

Equity Shorts

"Anticipating Mr. Friedman "

history, a man so driven as the chief curator of Restoration Hardware might have led a revolution. As it is, he seeks to revolutionize the high end of furniture and décor trades.

DEC 11, 2015

Equity Shorts

"Generation ZIRP"

Lenders and borrowers may be reasonable people, but they periodically miscalculate. There is feast, then there is famine, world without end. It’s the credit-related business models that come and go.

JAN 23, 2015

Equity Shorts

"Drug dealer"

A financialized age has at last produced a financialized pharmaceutical company. Herewith, a long look at an enterprise that does its compound-hunting not in the laboratory but in the stock market.

MAR 7, 2014

Fixed Income Longs

"For the un-meek"

If something can’t go on forever, it won’t. Now under way is a bullish speculation on a bearish set of circumstances. Anticipating the joyous relief imparted by the lifting of bankruptcy fears.

MAR 11, 2016

Fixed Income Longs

"Introducing the Grant’s Supermodel Credit Portfolio"

Credit is what we are bullish on--cast-off residential mortgage-backed securities, senior bank loans, convertible bonds and corporate...

DEC 12, 2008

Fixed Income Longs

"Klarman baits a hook"

Seth A. Klarman, an investor of private capital in Cambridge, Mass., is now, and has been for some weeks, buying junk bonds--a few issues--with conviction.

FEB 16, 1990

Fixed Income Shorts

"Yield to worst"

"The food is terrible," to quote the famously ambivalent restaurant review--"and the portions are so small." Much the same can be said of today's junk-bond market.

APR 4, 2014

Fixed Income Shorts

"Napoleon advances on Moscow"

Although opulent, the 1987 Campeau Corp. annual report is dated. On April 1, two months after the close of the Campeau fiscal year, Federated Department Stores entered the corporate fold...

JUN 24, 1988

Fixed Income Shorts

"Junk debunked"

In the bond market, this is a day of high hopes and low interest-coverage ratios. It is a day of the near extinction of the triple-A corporate credit and the rise to investment respectability of the sub-Baa credit...

SEP 24, 1984

Alternative Assets

"Soil erosion"

Farmland values climbed with rising corn prices and tumbling interest rates. Now the cycle turns. We write for urbanites, suburbanites, exurbanites and agriculturalists alike.

AUG 8, 2014

Alternative Assets

"Zero-coupon trees"

While Wall Street has disavowed extreme leverage since the crisis of 2008, foresters practice it as a matter of course. Dig a hole, plant a seedling and wait 25 or 30 years.

JUL 13, 2012

Alternative Assets

"Trump for the bid"

A coincidence in the latest Playboy: Donald J. Trump, the subject of the Playboy interview, and Miss March, Deborah Driggs, share the same basic philosophy of life.

FEB 2, 1990

Grant's Archive

Subscribers may download whatever they wish. Non-subscribers may search the archives and download past issues at the cost of $115 per issue.

To license individual articles for reprint, please email us at reprints@grantspub.com

May 15, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 10

Zero times zero equals $5.9 trillion

The overlay of zero percent interest rates on zero-cost stock speculation is the new force on Wall Street.

The oddest couple

A Harvard eminence and the 45th president of the United States share an interest-rate obsession.

Changing monetary places

An undervalued, underowned, inflation-resistant and coronus-immune asset—what might it be?

Left-hand spanner

Grant’s remains bearish on an American icon.

The price is wrong

The problem with price fixing is that even the right price becomes the wrong price as the world turns.

Read the footnotes

There’s more to the new inflation report than the soothing headline.

Credit Creation • Cause & Effect

May 1, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 9

A short history of making things worse

The federalization of American finance didn’t come of a clear, blue, free-market sky.

For the thrifty

A “special savings certificate” for Americans over the age of 65.

Glass half-full

Bullish on a trio of gas-related securities. As noted two weeks ago in the pages of Grant’s, oil’s pain may be gas’s gain.

Aristocrat of the junkyard

Concentrated and sustained capital compounding is their shared M.O.

Empty skies

Bearish on a certain parts supplier with a strategy that has drawn unwanted comparisons to Bausch Health Companies, Inc., the renamed Valeant Pharmaceuticals International.

Savers shriek as Nintendo slashes rates

Is there no way to test radical policy without making us all guinea pigs?

April 17, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 8

That which is unseen

The TIPs market forecasts an average rate of inflation of 1.2% over the next 10 years. The Fed’s balance sheet (possibly on its way to $10 trillion), the federal budget deficit (pointing to $3.8 trillion) and broad money-supply growth (topping 12%) may suggest a different narrative. A “cold” inflation no more?

Not so radioactive

Burgeoning gluts of most everything the world over indicate that Covid-19 is crushing demand even faster than it’s disrupting supply. One commodity, at least, bucks the trend.

Value agonistes

A re-examination of the value school both from the top-down and the bottom up: interest rates, conditioned behavior and the cycles of taste and technology, on the one hand; a Marin County, Calif. value-investing partnership, lately the worse for wear, on the other.

Home fires burn

A hard look at a single-family rental business in which the insiders sell stock and the tenants lodge complaints. But a bright spot in vacation homes.

One side of the boat

Extreme bearish positioning—that and aggressive Federal Reserve bidding—account for the ferocity of a rally in stocks, investment-grade bonds and lesser credit instruments.

Credit Creation • Cause & Effect

April 3, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 7

Credit virus superspreader

You might have thought that a decade’s patching and legislating would have mended the broken financial system. It turns out that things are more fragile than ever.

Typical but unprecedented

The yo-yo action in security prices is not the only fact that beggars historical comparison in this strange springtime.

America the homebound

On a certain homebuilder and on the safer of two income plays that featured in the prior issue of Grant’s, we remain bullish.

Lowering the boom

A provocative new report from Moody’s Investors Service clarifies the cost and warns of the resulting, looming difficulties to state and local governments of lower stock prices and lower (and lower and lower) interest rates.

Not-so-fine dining

Frozen bread, salad dressing, dips and croutons are its stock in trade. Bearish on a safety stock straight out of central casting.

Compared to what?

We are in uncharted waters and few real-time economic trackers are designed to deal with sharp, sudden stops in activity.

Credit Creation • Cause & Effect

March 20, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 6

Biggest hearts, lowest rates

An interest-rate observer can only ask if the outpouring of central-bank credit, along with the promise of unstinted fiscal stimulus, is compatible with the lowest rates in 4,000 years.

To your health!

Investment bargains are few and far between in this era of nonstop QE. Speculating on a return to something like normalcy.

Storm in a port

Gold mines are the subject, and Grant’s is bullish on them. The question before the house is whether a critical mass of complacent dollar holders will come around to agree with us.

Interest-income trio

The market has crashed, and so have government-bond yields. Now where to turn for a modicum of income at an acceptable level of risk?

What the Fed does all day

With a new intervention almost every day, you may have lost track of what, exactly, goes on in the Eccles building

March 6, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 5

A kind of price discovery

Is a 10% drawdown the strike price for the Fed’s famous put?

Ten-cent beers

On June 4, 1974, mispriced alcohol caused a riot at Cleveland’s old Municipal Stadium. Might ground-skimming interest rates not have a similar effect on Wall Street today?

Monetary true north

We break news as a far-sighted institutional investor breaks ranks.

Money's green, too

On the environmental, social and governance approach to buying low and selling high, a pair of picks that we say do not, will not, cannot click.

Enrichment potential

Discouraged bulls may feel as if nothing has gone right, or right enough, but the news is better than the price action.

When it rains

Flooding, plagues and swine fever. Still, everyone wants bonds.

February 21, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 4

Diversity and inclusion at the Fed

It was the dissenting candidate, not the conforming one, who drew hostile attention from members of the Senate Banking Committee in last week’s job interview for the Federal Reserve Board.

Xi Jinping goes viral

Communist chieftains make poor epidemiologists.

Top of the heap

Never before have so many invested so much in so few. What the arc of the IBM share price may teach about the prospects for the S&P 5.

Hold the condiments

It’s an ill wind that blows no portfolio any good. A silver lining in the gathering storm clouds of triple-B-rated corporate bonds.

Stay home

What happens to growth stocks without growth?

February 7, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 3

Gale-force liquidity

By one man’s reckoning, the six-month-old gust of Federal Reserve accommodation is the strongest since the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and, before that, the attacks of 9/11. No such shocks whipped up today’s monetary winds.

About those p/e's

The stock market is even richer than you think, said the front page of the prior issue of Grant’s. We reiterate our case with a simple example.

America the overvalued

Bullish on certain foreign companies and on a particular domestic situation with which the index-makers are happily uninvolved.

Grand tour of junk

Connecting fact with perception, perception with valuation and valuation with risk. “Hold on to your hats!” is the investment conclusion.

Driven by Ford

The Treasury market seems to feast on new supply. We’ll see about the junk market.

January 24, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 2

‘Low growth at a huge multiple’

What the indexed investor sees is not always what the indexed investor gets.

Truly sustainable investing

Newly issued by Artemis Capital Management, L.P., Austin, Texas, is a guide to investing after you (probably) won’t be around to attend to the details.

Energetic income

Opportunities in income-producing stocks that occupy the energy wing of the investment dog house.

Plastic refuse

Bearish on a debt-financed roll-up of roll-ups that stands at the intersection of minuscule interest rates and money-burning-a-hole-in-the-deal-doers’-pockets.

Not so stimulating

As the overclass gathers in Davos, Switzerland, the United States and Europe have at last found common ground.

January 10, 2020, Vol. 38, No. 1

Pennies in the fiscal fuse box

The history of the growth of the public debt is also the history of the failed attempts to control it.

Personal preference

You have cash and a problem: How to earn income with an acceptable level of risk?

State of denial

A long overdue demotion for the home of American high finance.

No smoke here

Buried under a curious choice of nomenclature.

Bull-market archetype

Bearish on a Midwest dividend aristocrat and wary on what its valuation and vulnerability may signify for the stock market as a whole.

Slow boat gains speed

It’s not hard to see the investment attraction. Yet, speculators betting on reflation may be disappointed.

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