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Propounded by the economist Abba Lerner, modern monetary theory is an old thing made new. A close and lucid reasoner was Lerner, but his disciples? Not a model, rather an “attitude.”
Half of the moon is dark, but 85% of the leveraged-loan market is shrouded. Shedding a new bright light on the credit profile of that $1.1 trillion accident-waiting-to-happen.
“China will elect to float the renminbi,” speculated Russell Napier, leadoff speaker at the Spring 2019 Grant’s Conference, “and a jarring deflationary shock will quickly give way to rip-roaring global inflation.”
“If you pay a price expecting an incremental reinvestment of 14% and it’s on its way to 7%, it can be an expensive lesson.”
“I’m looking forward to having my Warhol Campbell’s Soup painting arrive at my doorstep in an Amazon van.”
“You will get new highs on all of the averages,” observed Wall Street’s best stock-market technician.
On money and banking and the duty of a central bank to clean up after a boom: Thoughts from the Greatest Victorian prove especially timely.
“I like the market here, but I don’t like the direction we’re going.”
“You don’t need much of an increase in inflation to change the market tone of TIPS, because expectations right now are a deflationary kind of thing.”
“In Mexico, people retire when they are 72 years old, in Brazil at 59, so this is an impossible system.”
Seated with your editor onstage at the Plaza, the financial market historian Richard Sylla came prepared with a multi-millennia view.
“You can have no certainty that stocks will beat bonds over multi-decade intervals,” our speaker informed the Grant’s audience, “and I would not assume that you can get 6.6% real in stocks.”
Volatility takes a cat nap.