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All Companies 3Com Corp. 3M Co Aaron’s Inc. Abertis Infraestructuras Abitibi Consolidated Inc. Absolute Invest Ltd. Absolute Private Equity Accelerate Diagnostics Access Flex Bear High Yield fund Accuride Corporation Ackerman & van Haaren Actavis plc. Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. Adecoagro S.A. Advanced Micro Devices AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF AerCap Holdings NV AES Corp. Aetna Affirm Holdings, Inc. Africa Opportunity Fund Agco Corp. AGNC Investment Corp. Agnico-Eagle Mines Aioi Insurance Airbnb, Inc. Airborne Freight Corp. AK Steel Holding Corp Akamai Technologies Akenerji Elektrik Uretim A.S. Alaska Milk Albermarle Corp. Alcoa Alexander & Baldwin Alibaba Group Holding Ltd Alleghany Corp. Allergan Inc. Alliance Holdings GP Alliance Resource Partners LP AllianceBernstein Income Fund Allied Capital Corp. Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. Allos S.A. Alon USA Altice N.V. Altria Group Amazon.com Ambac American Banknote Holographics American Electric Power American Greetings Corp. American International Group, Inc. Ameriprise Financial Ameritrade Holding Corp. AMR Corp. Amrep Corp. AMVIG Holdings Anglo American Platinum Ltd. Anglo American Plc. Anglogold Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A./N.V. Annaly Capital Management Antero Midstream Partners L.P. Anthracite Capital Antofagasta Holdings AP Alternative Assets LP Aperam S.A. Apex Mortgage Capital Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc Apollo Global Management AppFolio, Inc. Apple, Inc. Aradigm Corp. Aramark ArcelorMittal Arch Capital Group, Ltd. Arch Coal Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Ares Capital Corp. Ares Management Corp. Arkema Arrow Global Group plc. Artemis Alpha Trust Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. Ascena Retail Group Ashtead Group plc Asia Pulp & Paper Co. Asset Acceptance Capital Corp. AT&T Inc. athenahealth Atlas Mara Co-Nvest Ltd. ATP Oil & Gas Corp. Atrium European Real Estate Ltd. Atwood Oceanics Aurora Investment Trust plc Australia & New Zealand Banking Group AutoNation, Inc. AutoZone Avance Gas Holding Avianca Holdings SA Avid Technology Inc. Avon Products Axis Capital Holdings Azul S.A. B3 S.A. - Brasil Bolsa Balcao Babcock & Wilcox Co. Badger Meter, Inc. Ball Corp. Banca Carige S.p.A Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA Banco Bradesco S.A. Banco de Chile Bancolombia SA Bank of America Bank of Greece Bank of New York Mellon Bank of Nova Scotia Bank of Queensland Banque Nationale de Belgique Barclays PLC Barrick Gold BASF SE Bayerische Motoren Werke AG BB&T Corp. Bear Stearns Beazer Becton Dickinson and Co. Beijing Capital International Airport Berkshire Hathaway Inc-Cl A Berry Global Group, Inc. Best Buy BFF Bank SpA BHP Billiton BHP Billiton Ltd. Bitcoin Investment Trust BJ’s Wholesale Club BlackRock BlackRock AAA CLO BlackRock California Municipal Income Trust BlackRock MuniHoldings New York Quality Fund BlackRock MuniYield Michigan Quality Fund Blackrock MuniYield New York Quality Fund BlackRock MuniYield Pennsylvania Quality Fund Blackrock MuniYield Quailty Fund BlackRock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust Blackstone Group L.P. Blackstone Mortgage Trust Blackstone/GSO Senior Floating Rate Term Fund Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund Bladex S.A. Blount International Inc. Blue Sky Alternative Investments Ltd. BNP Paribas Boardwalk Pipeline Partners Boeing BOK Financial Boulder Brands British American Tobacco Plc. Brookfield Property Partners, LP Builders FirstSource, Inc. Bunge Ltd. Burger King Worldwide BW LPG C&J Energy Services Inc. C.B. Richard Ellis Cabot Oil & Gas Cairn Energy Cairn India Ltd. Calamos Convertible Fund Calavo Growers Calpine Corp. Cameco Cameco Corporation Campbell Soup Co. Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Canadian National Railway Co. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. Capital & Counties Properties plc Capital One Financial Corp. Capstead Mortgage Corp. Carlyle Group CarMax Inc. Carnival Cruise Lines Carrefour S.A. Carter’s Inc. Carvana Co. Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Casino Guichard Perrachon SA Castle Private Equity AG Catalyst Biosciences, Inc. Caterpillar CBL & Associates Properties CBRL Group Celgene Corp. Central Securities Corp. Ceradyne Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. Charles Schwab Charter Communications Chevron Corp. Chimera Investment China Cinda Asset Management Co. China Coal Energy Co. China Construction Bank China Evergrande Group China International Travel Service Corp Ltd China National Chemical Corp. China Shenhua Mining China Vanke Christopher & Banks Corp. Chuck E. Cheese Brands Inc. CIT Group Citigroup Clean Energy Fuels Corp. Clean Harbors, Inc. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Clorox Co. CME Group CNA Financial Corp. CNH Global N.V. CNX Gas CNX Resources Corp. Coca-Cola Co. Coca-Cola Icecek A.S. Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. Coface S.A. Comcast Corp. Comerica Commercial Metals Co. Commonwealth Bank of Australia Companhia Vale do Rio Doce CompuCredit Holdings Corp. Comverse Technology Con-way ConAgra Foods Concentradora Fibra Danhos SA de CV Concentradora Fibra Hotelera Mexicana SA de CV Conn’s Inc. CONSOL Energy Consolidated-Tomoka Land Co. Constellation Software Inc. Contura Energy Inc. Conversus Capital Copart, Inc. Copperbelt Energy Corp plc CoreSite Realty Corp. Coronado Biosciences Corporate Travel Management Ltd. CoStar Group, Inc. Costco Wholesale Countryside Properties plc Countrywide Credit Industries Cousins Properties Inc. Credicorp Ltd. Credit Suisse Group CreXus Investment Corp. CrossingBridge Low Duration High Yield Fund CSX Corp. Cullen/Frost Bankers Cummins Inc. Customers Bancorp, Inc. CVS Caremark Cyxtera Technologies, Inc. Daishi Bank Danske Bank A/S De La Rue plc Deere & Co. Delek Logistics Partners L.P. Dell Computer Delta Air Lines Destination Maternity Detour Gold Corp. Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank A.G. Deutsche High Income Opportunities Fund Deutsche High Income Trust Devon Energy Dex One Corporation Diamant Art Corp. Diamond Foods Inc. Diamond Resorts International Digital Realty Trust, Inc. DineEquity Dish Network Corp. Dixons Carphone plc Dogan Gazetecilik A.S. Dole Food Dollar General Dollar Tree, Inc. Dorian LPG Ltd. Dorman Products DoubleLine Income Solutions Dow Chemical Downey Financial Corp. Duke Realty Corp. Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. Eagle Point Credit Co. Inc. Eaton Vance Municipal Bond Fund Eaton Vance New York Municipal Bond Fund Eaton Vance Senior Income Trust ECA Marcellus Trust I El Paso Pipeline Partners Electrobras S.A. Eli Lilly & Co. Ellie Mae Inc. Emerald Oil, Inc. Emerson Electric Co. Emmis Communications Corp. Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones SA, ENTEL Enbridge, Inc. Endo International Plc Energias de Portugal SA ENI S.p.A Ensco plc. Enstar Group Ltd. Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EOG Resources Epicor Software Corporation Equinox Gold Corp. Equitable Group Inc. Equity Commonwealth Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. ETRACS Fisher-Gartman Risk off ETN ETRACS Fisher-Gartman Risk on ETN Euronav NV European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co. European Wax Center, Inc. Everbridge Inc. Evercore Partners Inc. Everest Group Ltd. Evotec S.E. Exide Technologies Exor SpA Expedia Experience Investment Corp. ExxonMobil Facebook FactSet Research Systems Fairfax Financial Holdings Fairfax India Holdings Corp. Fairway Group Holdings Fannie Mae Farmer Mac Farmland Partners Inc. Fastenal Co. FedEx Corp. Fiat S.p.A. Fibra Uno Fidelity & Guaranty Life Fidelity National Financial Fidelity National Information Services, Inc, Fifth Street Finance Corp. Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate Corp. Financial Engines First Eagle Global Fund First Eagle Gold Fund First Financial Bancorp. First Western Financial, Inc. FirstFed Financial Corp. Fisker Inc. Fleetwood Corp. Flowserve Corp. Fluor Corp. Fondual Proprietatea Ford Forest City Enterprises Forestar Group Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. Fortress Investment Group Fortress REIT Ltd. Fosun International Ltd. Foundation Coal Holdings Franco-Nevada Franklin Resources Fred. Olsen Energy ASA Freddie Mac Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Freescale Semiconductor Fresh Del Monte Produce Fresnillo Frontier Communications Corp. Frontline Ltd. FTSE/Xinhau China 25 Index FXCM Inc. G5 Entertainment A.B. Gannett GATX Corporation Gazprom OAO Genco Shipping & Trading Limited General Cable Corp. General Electric General Mills, Inc. General Motors General Shopping Brasil S.A. Genesee & Wyoming Inc Ginebra San Miguel Inc. Glatfelter Corp. Glencore PLC Global X Uranium ETF Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. Gold Fields Ltd. Gold Reserve Act of 1934 Goldcorp Goldcorp Inc. Goldman Sachs Group Golub Capital Goodrich Petroleum Google Great Northern Iron Ore Properties Greenbrier Companies Greencore Group plc Greenhill & Co. Greggs plc Greif Inc. Gresham House Strategic plc GrubHub Inc. Grupo Financiero Galicia Grupo Nutresa SA Gunes Sigorta A.S. GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. H&R Real Estate Investment Trust Haier Co. Ltd. Halcon Resources Hallador Energy Co. Halliburton Co. Hamilton Lane, Inc. Hancock Holding Co. Hanesbrands Inc. Hang Seng Bank Ltd Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. HarbourVest Harman International Hatteras Financial Corp HC2 Holdings Inc. Heartland BancCorp Heartland Value Fund Hecla Mining Co. HEICO Corp. HeidelbergCement A.G. Helen of Troy Ltd. Hercules Capital Inc. Hermes International Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. Hewlett-Packard Hochschild Mining Holding Bursatil Regional S.A. Home Capital Group Home Depot HomeAway Honam Petrochemical Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF Horsehead Holding Corp Horsehead Holding Corp., Hospira Howard Hughes Corp. Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. Humana Inc. Hunter Douglas Huntington Bancshares Hyundai Motor Hyundai Motor Co., preferred IBM Icahn Enterprises L.P. ICICI Bank Iconix Brand Group Infosys Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. InRetail Peru Corp. Intel Corp. Intelsat SA Intercontinental Exchange Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF International Bancshares Corp. International Paper International Seaways, Inc. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. Invesco Senior Loan ETF Invesco Value Municipal Income Trust Investment Quality Municipal Trust Invitation Homes, Inc. Iron Mountain, Inc. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund iShares International Treasury Bond ETF iShares J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF iShares JP Morgan U.S. Dollar Emerging Markets Bond ETF iShares National Muni Bond ETF iShares New York Muni Bond ETF iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF iShares Silver Trust iShares TIPS Bond ETF iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF Isis Pharmaceuticals iStar Financial IWG, PLC J.B. Hunt Transport Services J.C. Penney J.G. Wentworth Inc. J.P. Morgan Chase Janus Henderson AAA CLO Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC JB Hi-Fi Ltd. JBG Smith Properties Jefferies Group John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. Johnson & Johnson Joy Global JPMorgan Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Securities plc JZ Capital Partners Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc. Kansas City Southern KapStone Paper and Packaging Corp. Kazatomprom GDS KBR Inc. Kerry Group plc Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Keurig Green Mountain Keycorp Kilroy Realty Corp. Kimberly-Clark Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Kinder Morgan Inc. Kinetic Concepts Kinetsu Corp. Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. KKR & Co. LP Klondex Mines Knight Capital Group Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Kohl’s Corp. Kone OYJ Koninklijke Philips N.V. Koppers Holdings Korean Preferred Stocks Kraft Heinz Co Kroger Co. Kulicke & Soffa Lancaster Colony Corp. LandAmerica Financial Group Lanxess Lawson Software Lazard Ltd. Legg Mason Value Leggett & Platt Lehman Brothers Lemonade, Inc. LendingClub Lennar Corp. Lennox International, Inc. Leo Holdings Corp. LifeLock Ligand Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Light S.A. Lincoln National Corp. LinkedIn Corp. Linn Energy Lithia Motors, Inc. Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. Lloyds Banking Group LOccitane International S.A. Lockheed Martin Corp. Loews Corp. Loma Negra Companía Industrial Argentina S.A. Lordstown Motors Corp. Lowes Companies Lufkin Industries Lukoil OAO Lumber Liquidators Holdings Luminar Technologies Inc. Luxottica M&T Bank Mack-Cali Realty Corp. Macquarie Group Limited Macy’s Inc. Manitowoc Co. MannKind Corp. Manulife Financial Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF Market Vectors Russia ETF MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Marks & Spencer plc Marmara Capital Equity Fund Martin Marietta Materials Inc. MasTec Inc. Mastech Holdings Matthews International Corp. MBIA Inc. McDermott International McDonald’s Corp. MCG Capital Corp. mdf commerce, Inc. Medallion Financial Corp. Medtronic Merck & Co. Merrill Lynch Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Meta Platforms, Inc. Metal Constructions of Greece (Metka) Methanex Corp MetLife Metropolitan West Low Duration Bond Fund MF Global holdings MFA Financial Inc. MGIC Investment Corporation MGM Energy Michael Kors Holdings Microsoft Microsoft Corp. Midas Gold Corp. Middleby Corp. Millicom International Cellular Minefinders Mister Car Wash, Inc. Mitsubishi Corp. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Moderna, Inc. Moelis & Co. Mohawk Industries, Inc. Molson Coors Brewing Company Monadelphous Group Mondelez International Inc. Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation Monsanto Co. Moody's Corp. Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley China Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Mosaic Company Moscow Exchange MPLX LP MSC Industrial Direct Co. Mueller Industries, Inc. Muzinich Low Duration Fund MVC Capital Mytilineos Holdings Nanto Bank Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF Index Natco Group National Australia Bank National City Bank National Commercial Bank National Oilwell Varco National Retail Properties Natural Resource Partners, L.P. Nautical Petroleum plc Navios Maritime Partners, L.P. Nestle SA Netflix Inc. Nevsun Resources New Fortress Energy LLC New Gold New Providence Acquisition Corp. Newcrest Mining Ltd. Newfield Exploration Newmont Mining Nielsen Holdings plc Nike Nikola Corp. Nintendo Co., Ltd. Nippon Active Value Fund Nissay Dowa General Insurance Noble Corp. plc Norcros plc Nordea Bank AB Nordic American Tankers Ltd. Nordstrom Norfolk Southern Corp North Atlantic Drilling Ltd. Northern Dynasty Minerals Northern Trust Corp Northgate Minerals NovaGold Resources Novus Capital Corp. NOW Inc Nucor Corporation Nuveen Build America Bond Fund Nuveen Build America Bond Opportunity Fund Nuveen Floating Rate Income Fund Nuveen New York AMT-Free Municipal Income Fund Nuveen New York Dividend Advantage Municipal Fund Nuveen North Carolina Quality Municipal Income Fund Nuverra Environmental Solutions Nvidia Corp. NVR Inc. Nyrstar Oasis Petroleum Inc. Occidental Petroleum Corporation Ocean Bio Chem Ocean Rig UDW Oculus Innovative Sciences Okomu Oil Palm Plc Olin Corp. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. On Deck Capital Oneok, Inc. Opko Health Orezone Resources Orient Overseas International Ormat Technologies, Inc. Osisko Mining Corp. Owens-Illinois Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Oxford Square Capital Co. Packaging Corp. of America Pactiv Corp. PacWest Bancorp Pakuwon Jati Tbk PT Palm Valley Capital Fund Pan American Silver Par Pacific Holdings Paragon Offshore Paramount Global Paramount Resources Ltd. Parapet 2006 Paris Orleans SA Parkway Inc. Parsley Energy Inc. Partners Group Holding A.G. Party City Holdco Inc. PDL BioPharma Peabody Energy Corp. Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp. Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust PepsiCo Permanent TSB Group Holdings plc Petroleo Brasileiro SA PG&E Corp. Pharmaceutical Product Development PHH Corp. Phillip Morris International, Inc. Phillips 66 Pico PIMCO Dynamic Credit Income Fund Ping An Bank Co. Ping An Insurance Group Co. Pioneer Natural Resources Co. Plum Creek Timber Plus500 Ltd. PNC Financial Services Popular, Inc. Post Holdings Inc. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Potlatch Corp. Power Finance Corporation PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund PowerShares Variable Rate Preferred Portfolio ETF Prada SpA Precision Castparts Corporation Pretium Resources Principal Financial Group Procter & Gamble Progress Energy Resources Progressive Corp. Prologis Inc. Property REIT, Inc. Prosensa Holding ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Treasury Prospect Capital Corp. Prosperity Bancshares Provident Bancorp, Inc. Public Storage Puregold Price Club Inc. PutleGroup Qualcomm Inc. QuantumScape Corp. Quest Diagnostics Quicksilver Rackspace Hosting Radian Group RadioShack Corp Raiffeisen International Ralcorp Holdings Inc. Range Resources Rayonier Inc. Raytheon Co. Realogy Holdings Corp. Realty Income Corp. Redrow plc Redwood Trust Regions Financial Regis Resources Ltd. Reis Inc. Reliance Industries Ltd. Renewi plc Repros Therapeutics Republic Services Inc. Research in Motion Resolute Energy Restaurant Brands International Inc. Restoration Hardware Holdings Richemont SA Rio Tinto Ltd. Rite Aid Rollins, Inc. Rosneft OAO Rowan Companies Royal Bank of Scotland Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RWE AG Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. S.A., Public Power Corp SA des Ciments Vicat Salvatore Ferragamo SpA Samsara, Inc. Samsung C&T Corp. Samsung Electronics Sangamo BioSciences Santander Consumer USA Sarepta Therapeutics Sberbank Schindler Holding AG Schlumberger N.V. Schweitzer-Mauduit International SCOR SE Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. Seacor Holdings Seadrill Ltd. Sears Holdings SemGroup Corp. Service Corp. International Shake Shack Inc. Shaw Group Shell plc Sherwin-Williams Ship Finance International Ltd. Shizuoka Bank Sichuan Expressway Signature Bank Signet Jewelers Ltd. Sime Darby Simon Property Group Simplify Downside Interest Rate Hedge Strategy ETF Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF Simplify MBS ETF Singapore Airlines Sino Gold Mining SK Square Co., Ltd. SL Green Realty Corp SLR Investment Corp. SM Prime Holdings, Inc. Smithfield Foods Snap-on Inc. Societe Generale Societe Internationale de Plantations et de Finance SoftBank Group Corp. SolarCity Corp. Sotheby's Southern National Bancorp of Virginia Southwest Airlines Southwestern Energy SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF SPDR Gold Shares Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. Springleaf Holdings Sprint Corp. Sprott Gold Equity Fund Sprott Inc. Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust Sprott Physical Gold Trust Sprouts Farmers Market Square Inc. St. Joe Company STAG Industrial Starboard Value Acquisition Corp. Starwood Property Trust State Street Corp. Steel Dynamics Sterling Infrastructure Co., Inc. Strongbridge Biopharma plc. Sumitomo Mitusi Financial Suncor Energy Inc. Sunrun Inc. Suntech Power Holding SunTrust Banks SuperMedia Surgutneftegas SVB Financial Group Swiss National Bank Syneron Medical Ltd. Syngenta AG T.Rowe Price Group Tahoe Resources Target Corp. Tata Motors Ltd. Tattooed Chef Inc. TCW Total Return Bond Teck Resources Teekay Tankers, Ltd. Tegna, Inc. Tejon Ranch Company Templeton Emerging markets Income Fund Templeton Global Income Fund Teranga Gold Tesco plc Tesla Motors Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. Texas Capital Bancshares Texas Pacific Land Trust Texas Roadhouse, Inc. TGR Financial , Inc. TGS ASA The Bancorp, Inc. The Fresh Market The Intertain Group Ltd. The Korea Fund, Inc. The Williams Companies, Inc. THL Credit ThyssenKrupp A.G. TICC Capital Corp. Tidewater Inc. Tiffany & Co. Tile Shop Holdings Time Warner Cable Tocqueville Gold Fund Tosoh Corp. Tourmaline Oil Corp. Tower Hill Mines Ltd. TransDigm Group Inc. Transocean Ltd. Transportadora de Gas del Sura SA Treasury Wine Estates Trex Co., Inc. Trinity Industries Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Tupperware Brands Turkish Airlines Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. U.S. Bancorp U.S. Filter Uber Technologies, Inc. UBS UBS AG Ultra Petroleum UltraShort FTSE/ Xinhau China 25 Proshare Under Armour Unifi Union Pacific Corp. United Company Rusal United Continental Holdings United Rentals Inc. United Technologies Unum Group Uranium Participation Corp. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International VanEck Gold Miners ETF VanEck Vectors AMT-Free Long Municipal Index ETF Vanguard Value ETF Vapor Corp. Verizon Communications Vermilion Energy, Inc. Viad Corp. Viking Therapeutics, Inc. Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. Vistra Corp. Vistry Group plc Vodafone Group Vornado Realty Trust W.R. Berkley Corp. W.W. Grainger Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB de CV Wal-Mart Stores Walgreen Walt Disney Co. Walter Investment Management Corp Warby Parker, Inc. Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Wasatch Small Cap Value Fund Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund Washington Federal Washington Mutual Inc. Waste Connections Waste Management Weiss Korea Opportunity Fund Wells Fargo & Company Wells Fargo Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund Class A Wendy’s Werner Enterprises, Inc. Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. Western Alliance Bancorporation Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund Western Asset Global Corporate Defined Opportunity Fund Western Asset High Income Opportunity Fund Western Asset High Yield Defined Opportunity Fund Western Digital Corp. Western Refining Western Union Company Westfield Group Westlake Chemical Corp. Westlake Chemical Partners LP Westpac Banking Corp. Westshore Terminals Weyerhaeuser Corp. Whirlpool Corp White Mountains Insurance Group Whole Foods Market Williams-Sonoma Windstream Holdings WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan WisdomTree Dreyfus Indian Rupee Woodford Patient Capital Trust plc Wright Medical XTO Energy Yahoo! Yamana Gold Yandex NV YPF S.A. Yum! Brands Inc. Zillow, Inc. Zion Oil & Gas Inc. Zoomlion

December 14, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 24

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End of the honor system

The belief that healing crisis through looser monetary policies is now being questioned.

Bullish on cold

Natural gas is cheap compared to oil

Babies in bathwater

Credit crisis offers opportunities in Ginnie Mae and CMBS securities.

Wages of sin

Inflation rises in countries with currencies tied to the U.S. dollar.

Inflation or bust--or both

The Federal Reserve balances the risk of inflation with market expectations of lower short term interest rates.

November 30, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 23

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The Central Bank of You and Me

The Federal Reserve balances the risk of inflation with market expectations of lower short term interest rates.

Mythical triple-A

General Electric is more of a financial than an industrial company and its credit default swaps suggest that it does not merit its triple-A rating.

Across the valley

Title insurer Fidelity National Financial is priced as if the housing market will never recover.

Cheap gets cheaper

The triple-A tranche of the ABX continues to fall creating a greater value.

Sell the euro

The strong euro will result in euro weakening policies.

November 16, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 22

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Value restoration: a progress report

Is turmoil in the credit markets creating opportunity in the ABX index?

Wanted: better mousetrap

Review of the Access Flex Bear High Yield fund.

Recession lottery tickets

Credit default swaps on industrial and commodity companies.

Centrifugal lottery tickets

Credit default swaps on European sovereign debt.

China’s slippery pole

Compares the Shanghai stock market of 2007 with the Tokyo stock market in the 1980s.

Private sector tightens itself

Commercial real estate market is slowing.

November 2, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 21

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Central banks provoke food fight

"If prices continue to rise," Jacques Diouf was quoted as saying in Monday's Financial Times, "I would not be surprised if we began to see food riots." Why not money riots? The director general of the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization didn't say. He did observe, however, that food prices are rising worldwide and that governments are trying to haul them back in.

Vanity's revenue miss

Socially responsible investing is fine for the people who like that kind of thing. For ourselves, we’ll take a pure play on human vanity. Especially does such an investment appeal when it comes with a low earnings multiple and the best kind of top-line growth available…

Triple-A minus

Late lingerers in the office last Friday stopped and stated at the news that Moody’s had taken the ratings ax to $33 billion of collateralized debt obligations, some of which had been rated on par with Treasury bills. Astounding, a pair of triple-A tranches…

Building trouble

On October 25, the editor of Grant’s spoke before a meeting of the New York Quantitative Finance Seminar on the subject, “Financial engineering: an oxymoron.” Following are excerpts from what he said, along with a few things he wishes he’d thought to say…

Verb among quants

On October 25, the editor of Grant’s spoke before a meeting of the New York Quantitative Finance Seminar on the subject, “Financial engineering: an oxymoron.” Following are excerpts from what he said, along with a few things he wishes he’d thought to say…

When the debt machine coughs

To date in this century, an additional dollar of American GDP growth has required – or, at least, been associated with- the creation of $5 of new indebtedness. Whereas nominal GDP has tacked on…

October 19, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 20

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A page from the Bank of Borat

"Oct. 12 (Bloomberg)–Kazakhstan's government will start buying shares of Kazakh banks on foreign exchanges next week to support prices after an 'attack' by hedge funds, Prime Minister Karim Masimov said. "'Kazakhstan is under attack from hedge funds and we will fight back,' he told reporters in the capital of Astana today. President Nursultan Nazarbayev earlier said the country is also suffering from 'unfounded' downgrades of its credit ratings."

Passage from India

Buying low and selling high may make you rich, but there's no guarantee about popular. This surprising lesson the management of [COMPANY] has been recently absorbing in the classroom of Prof. Market. . . .

Stock of the day

"It's more profitable to give financial advice than to take it," is a motto sometimes attributed to B.C. Forbes, the founder of another fortnightly financial journal. And while we at Grant's deplore Forbes's cynicism, we do not deny that he had a point. Only consider the Nasdaq-listed shooting star. . . . To get it out of the way, we are bearish on this electronic stock-tip disseminator. . .

Rallying 'round Ambac

"Ambac's estimate of the fair value or 'mark-to-market' adjustment for its credit derivative portfolio at September 30, 2007 amounted to an unrealized loss of $743 million, pre-tax," said the October 10 press release. "The company expects to report a net loss per diluted share up to $3.50 in the third quarter." Ambac management, the Street and the ratings agencies are of one mind on this evidently catastrophic disclosure. They agree it's bullish. Yes, credit spreads widened in the third quarter, and that fact forced on Ambac the obligation to mark its credit-default-swap portfolio to a lower market value. But what of it? Credit spreads, having widened, will sooner or later tighten. And because they did temporarily widen, Ambac can write more guarantee business at better prices. . . .

Credit crisis for some

"We have very good access to the credit markets," the man from [COMPANY] was telling listeners on the [COMPANY] conference call Tuesday, "and we benefit from the market's slide to quality. Let me give you an example. We can issue one-month commercial paper now at 30 basis points below Libor." If you can pay it back, you can borrow it. Foreign central banks, which can always pay it back (they can print it), continue to lay in U.S. dollar-denominated obligations for the high-minded purpose of manipulating exchange rates. . . .

October 5, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 19

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Bearish on a money machine

The highest net margin in the S&P 500 belongs to a triple-A-rated financial guarantor that seldom pays a claim. Since going public in 1991, in fact, this paragon of profitability has borne cumulative losses, net of recoveries, of only $275 million, as it's collected $6.2 billion in premiums. It boasts the highest return on equity (15.1% in 2006, 12.6% in the first six months of 2007) and lowest expense ratios (15.3% in 2006, 14.9% in the first six months of 2007) in the financial-guarantee business. To top it off, the shares of this astonishing enterprise change hands at 7.9 times the 2007 estimate and at 1.1 times book value. Yet, we believe, [this] is a stock to sell, or, at least, not to buy.

Suit up, Thomson Hankey

A phlegmatic people, Britons usually walk to the bank to make a withdrawal; they rarely run. Prior to last month's descent on Northern Rock, and putting aside some pushing and shoving outside the City of Glasgow Bank in 1878, there had not been a run on a British depository institution since the 1866 failure of Overend, Gurney, and Co. "A run on the bank was what you would expect in a 'banana republic,'" Richard Lambert, director-general of the British employers' federation, told the Financial Times last week. "That one should have happened in a mature and prosperous country like the U.K. is almost unimaginable." Now unfolding is a meditation on the British government, governments in general, the pound sterling and currencies in general.

'The fish shot back'

"What I learned on my summer vacation" was the format in which James S. Chanos addressed the August financial upheaval for the Grant's conference-goers. Topics covered included: "The wonderful world of FAS 157" (the new accounting standard for valuing hard-to-value investment esoterica); "Chutzpah, thy name is private equity"; "Infrastructure is not an asset class," and "Computers are rational, but they aren't always rational investors."

Good old Goldman

How is it, Jim Chanos had asked, that the big broker-dealers can show such consistently high returns on equity when their own star alumni, once transplanted at hedge funds, so often struggle to earn a half or a third of what their alma maters manage to produce, "no matter how leveraged they are or what bets they have on?"

Bullish on buildings

After he said his piece, Sam Zell, "the capitalist of the decade, of the century and of the millennium," as he was introduced from the rostrum, fielded questions. "Commercial real estate," a woman asked,--"it's an even bigger bubble than residential real estate, is it not?" "I'm sorry," Zell replied, "but I don't agree with you.

Advantage: Microsoft

"My concern," Gary Carmell, a Newport (Calif.)-based real estate investor, mused the other day, "is that there will be a paradigm shift in which investors start scanning the globe and come to recognize that plain old boring multinational companies offer a better risk-reward relationship than our beloved bricks and mortar."

Three sure things

"There are three near certainties," Jeremy Grantham, chairman of GMO, Boston, and one of Wall Street's original (and most successful) quants, assured the Grant's conference goers. "These near certainties will happen whether or not there is a credit crisis. If there's a credit crisis they will happen fast; if there isn't, they will happen slowly, but they will happen. They are. . .

Summertime of aberrations

Asked what gave him the confidence to refer to the July-August credit crisis in the past tense, Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and president of Harvard Management Co., collected his thoughts. "First," he said with a broad smile, "English is not my mother tongue." And he continued as follows: "I think that, for now, we are in a healing process. . . .

What bubble?

"We believe it is not a massive bubble." So Chen Xiaosheng, general manager of Shanghai-based SYWG Research described China's stock market--the so-called A-share market--to the Grant's audience. Chinese stocks are up for the best of reasons, he insisted: Profit growth is soaring, consumption is booming and corporate governance is improving.

Off a duck's back

"There will be some minor lawsuits," Sean Egan, founding partner of Egan-Jones Ratings Co., predicted. He was referring to the expected chastisement of the government-sanctioned ratings bodies for their contributions to the structured-assets disaster....

Inflational recessional?

Ian McCulley writes: "Bloggers, cranks, and gold bugs have been muttering about the inflationary fallout of the Fed's 50 basis point cut to the funds rate on September 18. A weakening dollar and strengthening commodities will have inflationary consequences, they cry. But measured inflation is on the decline, and appears to have reached its cyclical peak sometime last year. . . .

September 21, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 18

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No taxation without representation

The German economy needs one interest rate, the Spanish economy another. But what those disparate economies get is the same rate, the one the European Central Bank sets. If only the ECB could change places with the Federal Reserve, the governor of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, must sometimes muse. In America, it's one rate--4.75%, down from 5.25%, following Tuesday's FOMC action--for one country. But matters are not so deceptively simple as that...

Money’s a short sale

Without financial failure, Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, was saying on September 12, genuine financial success is impossible. If wayward banks and their careless depositors could always depend on their hovering governments for timely succor, the world would be impoverished. . . .

Plastic recycler

[COMPANY], buys up portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables for cents on the dollar and proceeds to dun the debtors. It calls them on the phone or pursues them in the courts, or both. Not many Americans wake up in the morning with a song in their hearts because the next recession, or consumer-credit event, is 24 hours nearer. [COMPANY]is one of this unusual group.

Drip by drip by drop

On the Great Plains, sirens warn of approaching tornadoes and sirens sound the all-clear. Not so on Wall Street. No timely klaxons send investors scurrying off to safety ahead of a cyclical blow or tell them when it's safe to climb out of the cellar. Now unfolding is a speculation on when the danger may pass in residential mortgage finance...

Grandiosity contest

At 79, Boone Pickens is attracting more media attention than ever, virtually all of it positive. At any given moment, he may be quoted on the pricing prospects for oil and natural gas or pictured giving money to another worthy cause. Recently, he made news commenting on Chinese air quality... The whole world wants to talk to Boone Pickens.

Cancel the recession

In the wake of the bad jobs report two Fridays ago, one sell-side analyst turned his face to the wall and wrote: "The coming 2008 economic recession, followed by peak ARM mortgage resets in 4Q-2008 and 1Q-2009 suggest to us that EVEN this 325 bps of rate cuts may NOT be enough to stave off a massive seizure and collapse of the US economy--including a FAILURE of a national home builder, or two, and a FAILURE of a major financial institution." . . .

September 7, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 17

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Strongest currency, best bourse

Readers of The New York Times may refuse to believe it, but Iraq has turned into a capital magnet. The only thing stronger than the Iraqi currency is the Baghdad stock market. Money is sometimes misinformed, but it is never insincere. Something is afoot in Iraq.

Pillars of faith

Flush times are trusting times. Cheap and accessible credit induces a belief in the benevolence of man, in the soundness of money and in the integrity of financial statements. Bulls in bull markets learn to believe. Not for them the tedious work of reading financial footnotes or straining to understand just how $100 million of triple-B-rated mortgage-backed securities could plausibly be transformed into a structure of which the top $80 million could be rated triple-A. In a rising market, it's more profitable not to ask.. . . Now comes the contraction phase of the cycle, and with it a new belief system. . . .

Detroit for sale

Detroit's house prices, an associate real estate broker in Detroit, told a caller from Grant's last week, "are falling really fast. I mean, they're falling hard. It's shocking. Houses that were priced at $85,000 two years ago are now selling for $45,000." Colleague Adam Rowe traveled to the Motor City before Labor Day to search for investment value. . . .

Change in the monetary weather

Wait long enough and the inevitable will happen. The inflationary effects of foreign central-bank reserve accumulation are finally beginning to show up in official statistics.

August 10, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 16

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We blame the human race

It can't please Jim Cramer, pyrotechnic CNBC commentator, that the Federal Open Market Committee remains focused on the inflation in goods and services rather than on the deflation in stocks and bonds. On Wall Street, few seem pleased. . . . Now comes the inevitable repricing of mispriced debt, and with it, a great debate: Can a credit contraction be benign? Can it, in fact, be bullish, for stocks or bonds or the economy?

Angelo Mozilo reconsidered

Bears, too, live in houses, and they accept that most Americans will continue to sleep under roofs, rather than inside automobiles or on park benches. Conventionally sheltered, the average Joe and Jane will continue to need a mortgage. This wellspring of trust in the American way of life inevitably leads a value-seeking bear to put aside his bearishness.

Turmoil in our time

True believers in the competence of central bankers and the stability of the international monetary system may now stop reading and turn the page. We are about to espouse techniques to capitalize on the incompetence of central bankers and the instability of the international monetary system.

Bullish on due dilly

The trouble with [this COMPANY] is that mortgage securitization is its bread and butter. It was a terrific business while it lasted, but now it's stopped. In the second quarter--before things got really bad--"transaction management" revenues plunged by 41.8%, to $28.1 million, from the $48.2 million posted in the second quarter of 2006. The stock market has been notified of this discontinuity, of course. The [COMPANY] share price, quoted today at 82% of book value, has fallen by 67% in the year to date. And because some 60% of the corporate assets comprise goodwill and intangibles, book value isn't much of a pillar for the reeling bulls to lean on. Still, we believe we see an important positive. . .

Roll call of the bag holders

Simon Mikhailovich, of Eidesis Capital, joked at the Grant's conference in April that the ultimate owners of subprime-backed paper were "agriculture cooperatives in Taiwan who don't report to the international media." As it turns out, some do, because no fewer than seven Taiwanese financials have reported U.S. subprime exposure. . . .

July 27, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 15

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Monetary sin of the east

The international monetary system is a simpler piece of plumbing than it might appear. The United States emits hundreds of billions of dollars a year into the world's payments channels. Foreign central banks print the currencies with which to buy the dollars that profit-seeking entities shun. Result: gushing global liquidity with all the attendant froth. There's only one mystery about "Bretton Woods II," as the brokerage-house economists are pleased to call this happy set of conventions. And that mystery is whether it's too good to last.

Under the wire

New lows in the indices of junk bonds, tradable bank debt, residential subprime mortgages and commercial mortgage-backed securities indicate that the caravan of credit has picked up stakes from the Heights of Accommodation and is proceeding on the return cyclical journey to the Depths of Stringency.

Triple-A's to the woodshed

"Not your father's triple-A" was the headline over the Grant's article that warned of coming troubles in the highest reaches of structured finance. The date was April 20, and our investment analysis favored the one and only triple-A-rated issuer that can lawfully print its own dollars. That would be the U.S. Treasury, a very different kind of obligor than the structured kind. Do we happen to have a current example of the structured kind? Why, yes. . .

Big gold shines

Now begins a fresh look at a company that is not only the "world's largest unhedged gold producer," as new management proudly trumpets, but also, arguably, the leader in big-cap gold-mining disappointment. . . .

Not the euro, either

In the hall of mirrors of relative currency values, the euro is evidently strong. But that is because the dollar is absolutely laboring. Bearish on the dollar, Grant's is--if possible--even more bearish on the euro. . . .

July 13, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 14

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Field guide for the mortgage opportunist

Grant's does not happen to believe that the bear market is close to ending. We doubted it even before the Standard & Poor's bombshell, followed by a secondary explosion from Moody's, on Tuesday. But, knowing from hard experience how short can be the useful half-life of a deeply held investment opinion, we are trying to prepare for the next cycle. How to analyze distressed mortgage assets? How to value them? How to buy them? . . .

Shadow falls on CDOs

Not the least ominous thunderhead to form in Tuesday's S&P conference call was the threat to $100 billion or so of mezzanine collateralized debt obligations. A mezzanine CDO is a pile of debt collateralized by triple-B-rated asset-backed securities, mainly RMBS. All told, S&P said on the call, 218 CDOs own tranches of those downgrade-bound RMBS, of which 168 are mezzanine CDOs. At the fall Grant's Conference, Paul Singer delivered an analysis that exactly anticipated Tuesday's fireworks (Grant's, October 6). . . .

Seconds on tortillas

Stand between a farm-state politician and the tooting ethanol gravy train and you take your life in your hands. Then, again, [THIS COMPANY]. has had no choice. It's among the world's biggest corn buyers. In the first quarter alone, it took down $140 million of what the grain bulls worshipfully call "yellow gold."

Monetary time machine

"Reserve" is a status not quickly conferred on any national currency. Nor, once conferred, is it lightly withdrawn. The pound sterling reigned as the world's reserve currency long after the British lion started to lose its teeth. Nevertheless, history stands still for no monetary brand. What might the reserve currencies of tomorrow be?

Mr. Market trumps Mr. Bernanke

The recent run of stronger-than-expected economic data has popularized the notion that the Federal Reserve will sit tight for the rest of the year. Hints from the Fed that it will focus more on still-elevated headline inflation add to the hawkish tone. Doves, meanwhile, are curious how this stance sits with a housing market that appears nowhere near bottom and a subprime lending crisis that grows less "contained" by the day.

June 29, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 13

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Wall Street needs a haircut

Though Bear Stearns and its creditors could not agree on what to do, they clearly saw what not to do. A free and open auction of the funds' unwanted collateral was the course of action to avoid, they concurred. Price discovery could wait until the return of blue skies and normal pulse rates. The first order of business was price suppression. . . .

End of the whip

Since February 9, the day Blackstone handed over a check for $39 billion to Sam Zell and the other smiling owners of Equity Office Properties, real estate stocks on both sides of the Atlantic have been laboring. Priced for perfection, the likes of IYR, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. real estate exchange-traded fund, have encountered imperfection in the shape of rising interest rates and a whiff--the merest whiff--of risk aversion among previously insensate lenders....

Cyclical litmus test

The debt boom of the 1980s turned to bust on Oct. 13, 1989 (it happened to be a Friday), with the collapse of plans for a $7 billion leveraged buyout of UAL Corp., parent of United Airlines. What event might mark the close of the credit frolics of the mid-'00s?

Long a favorite short

As this publication turns out the lights and climbs into bed, the Japanese yen is setting record lows against the New Zealand dollar, which pays its holders 8%, and the euro, which yields 4%. The Japanese unit is making heavy weather against the U.S. dollar, which returns 5%-plus, as well as against a host of other currencies that yield an overnight rate much higher than the 0.5% on offer in the world's second-largest economy. . . So, then, it's decided: Everybody sell the yen. Not so fast, we say--again (Grant's, January 26). Your editor, who invests in Japanese equities, carries a torch for the yen, though, admittedly, there are days when he wonders why....

From Russia, with dollars

Whom to thank for the dollar's springtime rally? The bulls may write a handwritten note to the nations that absorb redundant greenbacks. They are the ones that print money (rubles, renminbi, etc.) with which to buy money (dollars). But even the most free-spending central banks have limits.

June 15, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 12

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Mortgage derivatives are us

"Who owns this stuff?" is everyone's favorite question about subprime mortgages and the gingerbread Victorian asset-backed structures that house them. "Hedge funds, European insurance companies and Asian central banks," is the stock answer. "A Canadian bank" is a phrase almost never heard–-at least, not until the May 31 conference call of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

India on the cheap

How much are you willing to pay for the great India growth story? Specifically, what's the right price for a profitable and fast-growing Indian bank? There are several schools of thought on the subject. Now under way is an exposition on India's state-owned banks, or, rather, state majority-owned banks, as the public holds the stubs....

Repent at leisure

In their hurry to put in the top in the income-producing property market, the real estate bulls lost track of a few details. In one case, it was the contract.[An] unexplained decision by a [COMPANY] to back away from its announced purchase of prime Manhattan property had prompted some to worry that the eminent New York City real estate concern was overextended. . . .

Fire the brainiacs

On Sunday, the editor of Grant's addressed the President's Meeting of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. at Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario. Following is the text of his remarks: Just the other day, Kevin Warsh, a governor of the central bank of the populous country on the other side of Niagara Falls, was singing the praises of financial innovation. Asset-backed securities, derivatives of all kinds, hedge funds etc., he said, have made the world a far, far better place. No more do banks have to retain the loans they make or brokers merely distribute the securities they underwrite. And a good thing, too, said Warsh, who proceeded to quote numbers so fantastic that his London audience must have begun to wonder if they were correctly parsing his American accent. . . .

Bonds are from hunger

Ordinarily, central bankers don't much concern themselves with food prices. They rarely go hungry, and, besides, they have their theories. But the recent jump in the cost of eating may at last command their attention. It could hold the key for the dollar and dollar-denominated interest rates....

June 1, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 11

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February marked the spot

Only 20 years ago, Japanese investors were paying the kind of prices for U.S. real estate that left the American sellers agog. Now the national roles have reversed. It's the American buyers who are astounding the Japanese sellers.

Sell a great company

Oil and water don't mix, except in the operations of the Natco Group, born the National Tank Co. in Tulsa, Okla., in 1926. Eighty years on, Natco (NTG on the Big Board) is a top-flight provider of wellhead process equipment and services to the oil and gas industry. Its technology helps to extend the productive life of aging wells. But here is the rub: Its stock price is intertwined with the oil price. Which focuses the investment question on a great imponderable: Whither the oil price? Now begins a microeconomic exploration of what Jeremy Grantham, a founder and in-house sage of Boston money manager GMO, has termed the first universal, all-asset bubble

Read the footnotes

In general, the buyers of investment-grade bonds don't read the text of the prospectus, let alone the indenture, let alone the footnotes to either. They don't have time, they say. And they don't have the documents. All the more reason for vigilance in a time of nonstop deal making....

Bank of binary risk

"To get it out of the way," colleague Ian McCulley writes in a confessional vein, "let's all admit that this company is not really a traditional value stock. It's more of a call option on an idea that seems reasonably priced given that its potential target market is any unbanked population on earth, the sum total of which could be four billion."...

The curious surge in money supply

The yield curve is flat, the Federal Reserve is unaccommodative and the residential mortgage market is constricted. Yet growth in the broader measures of money supply is quickening, M-2 and MZM to the fastest rates in four years. "The discontinued M-3, which is kept alive on the blogosphere. . .is supposedly growing at double digits."...

May 18, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 10

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Atlas of monetary derangement

Within the next week or so, the G-8 finance ministers will assemble in Potsdam, Germany, and the Chinese government travel team will alight in Washington, D.C. However, the most intriguing city on the monetary map may be neither Potsdam nor Washington, but the broiling capital of Saudi Arabia. From Riyadh last week issued new complaints about the rising rate of inflation in that kingdom and in neighboring Gulf states. . . . Now begins a speculation on whether an inflationary outbreak among America's creditor nations could hasten the unhinging of current monetary arrangements, known in learned circles as "Bretton Woods II."...

Portfolio pills

The announced purchase of little MedImmune by giant AstraZeneca at a price half again as high as the one that MedImmune commanded before it put itself up for sale last month is good news at one remove for every biotech investor. Savoring it, he or she may entertain a plausible hope of finding a seat at the feast table of M&A. Now begins another Grant's-sponsored biotech tour, led, as usual, by Dan DeClue, portfolio manager at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder Advisers, New York. . . .

New Macro peril

A Paris Hilton impersonator, told reporters at a "Free Paris Hilton" rally in New York last week that the U.S. labor market hung in the balance....

Quoth the sage

"Here comes an optimistic question," quipped Warren Buffett as the Grant's special correspondent, Jondavid Klipp, made his way to the microphone during the Sunday press conference at the Berkshire Hathaway meeting nearly two weeks ago in Omaha. The question came in two parts....

We are not alone

On Tuesday, the editor of Grant's addressed the New York Hard Assets Investment Conference. Following is the gist of his remarks: Ladies and gentlemen, we used to be alone, but we aren't any longer. And that fact introduces a new risk to our beloved gold price....

Texas pension hold 'em

Frederick E. "Shad" Rowe writes from Dallas: On April 14, the Austin American-Statesman reported a "seismic shift" in the asset allocation of the $109 billion Teacher Retirement System of Texas (TRS).... ...I do not think that everything that happens in Texas is a precursor to events in the broader world, but when selectively applied, the theory has never failed me...

Chinese jailbreak

Late last week, Beijing ordered the parole of certain funds now imprisoned by Chinese capital controls. By no means will every last renminbi be set free--just $7 billion to $9 billion is likely to be liberated for investment outside the country, according to one estimate--but the order raised the possibility....

Mortgage contagion update

Can buyers of income-producing property expect to borrow 80% of the value of their purchase on interest-only terms for the full 10-year life of their loans. That such conditions were very nearly standard until only a month or so ago goes a long way toward explaining the splendid arc of property prices. . . .

May 4, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 09

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Saps take umbrage

Doormats to private-equity promoters, real-estate speculators and hedge-fund titans, creditors have actually staged a revolt. They have ordered the rotten apples removed from the barrel of collateral that was to support a pending sale of commercial mortgage-backed securities. Otherwise, they said, they would sit on their wallets. The issuer, none other than General Electric, submitted....

Stall-speed report

Here is what a recession isn't, David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, advised the Grant's conference-goers. It isn't back-to-back quarters of shrinking gross domestic product. Think of it, rather, in terms of stall speed: "It's when GDP gets to 1.5% or lower. Why? Because population is rising 1.5% a year. When you get GDP growth below 1.5% a year, what it means is that real per-capita national income is actually contracting." And when per-capita national income is contracting, credit spreads are bound to be widening. Three days later came the first-quarter GDP report. . . .

Chicken parts with turkey

"I am here to make a bullish case for distress and to explain why this technology can be a very interesting and valuable tool in the hands of some, and potentially a very destructive tool in the hands of others. Much like fertilizer, which can be used to grow heirloom tomatoes or blow up buildings--same substance, very different outcomes." So Simon Mikhailovich, a founder of Eidesis Capital, specialists in complex debt securities, informed Grant's Spring Investment Conference-goers. . . .

Bag holders’ roll call

Bill Ackman, founder and president of Pershing Square Capital Management, is a nonbeliever in structured finance. His doubt is all-encompassing, he told the Grant's audience. The structures are over-leveraged, the ratings are overgenerous and the bond guarantors--who stand behind the ostensibly ironclad ABS and CDO tranches--are overextended. It's a great business for the securities assemblers and ratings agencies, all right, Ackman did allow. They, at least, get paid up front. The investor constituency is the one that has to wait. And what if the wait is in vain? Who would bear the losses? Ackman had a list....

Sounds like ‘cutter’

Cheap stocks with currencies to match was the theme of your editor's presentation. Halliburton has moved its headquarters to Dubai from Houston, he observed in opening. "I don't know about you," Grant said, "but my policy is, I go where Halliburton goes." Of course, Dick Cheney's corporate alma mater is only following the dollars. . . .

$35 trillion to go

"Asset prices are clearly at historic highs. That means returns are at historic lows." So Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management, readily conceded. But he went on to make an ultra-long-term case for . . .

Karl Hill, role model

The story of how a Georgia banker of a certain age turned $3 million into $50 million in just over six years captured the full and undivided attention of the room. Proof of this extraordinary feat was provided by the man who accomplished it, Karl Hill, owner of Monroe County Bank, Forsyth, Ga.

Passive aggressive

The endowment manager's endowment manager had some advice for the active investors in the room. It was, in a word, "Index." David Swensen, pioneering nonpassive manager of the Yale University endowment, reminded one and all how stiff a competitor Mr. Market can be....

Guilt-free warming

"It's a beautiful afternoon--cool, pleasant. And you've chosen to spend it in here, listening to an agricultural economist talk about climate change. There is one saving grace. I'm going to talk about it in a way that you've never heard. I'm going to talk about evidence." So Dennis Avery, co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of "Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years," began his presentation. He was speaking because the editor of Grant's loves both capitalism and blizzards and has been wondering if the two can co-habit....

Just imagine

The page-one expose about financial leverage in Monday's Wall Street Journal lacked not facts but imagination. It failed to explore, as Eric Mindich did before the Grant's audience, how hedge funds and private-equity purveyors might contribute their share to an even more rotund national debt profile....

In praise of cheap insurance

Though the euro is making highs, the Spanish home-building stocks are sinking. Monetary logicians will perceive a non sequitur....

April 20, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 08

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Not your father’s triple-A

On Wall Street, "AAA" is the rating of a top-flight borrower. On all the other streets, it's the organization you call to get a tow. Taking one thing with another--the proliferation of dubious, triple-A-rated "structured products" and the snowy springtime driving season--we are coming to value the tow more than we do the rating. Now unfolding is a report on safety, real and ersatz, in the taxable fixed-income market.

Print money, buy money

Rain falls from the heavens, liquidity from the central banks. The Federal Reserve, or the People's Bank of China, or the Banco de la Republica de Colombia acquires earning assets with newly conjured money. Figuratively speaking, they "print" it. Now begins an update on this ancient, liquidity-enriching procedure. Until just recently, it was the Asian central banks that chiefly manned the global monetary pumps. They acquired dollars with currencies they printed for the very purpose. Why? To forestall an export-depressing rise in the value of yen, renminbi, won, baht, or what have you. The labors continue, though the hands on the pumps have changed. . . .

Bearish on H&R Block

Nobody likes taxes except for the tax preparers, but many admire the preparers--and H&R Block (HRB on the Big Board) has a valuation to prove it. At 18 times the earnings forecast and five times book value, you wouldn't know unless you asked that the nation's top tax-preparation firm by revenue also owns a benighted subprime lender. We asked. . .

Lending recedes; ditto, inflation

Before the invention of CDOs, CLOs, ABS, CMBS, RMBS and other such vessels of indebtedness, there were "commercial banks." Some of these relics survive to this day, but they're not doing the business they did.

April 6, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 07

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New wrinkle in credit: Ohio’s unsecured mortgages

In this very space one issue ago, Grant's was able to show that precedent abounds for state-imposed stays on mortgage foreclosures. But Ohio demonstrated our point before we actually made it, and it continues to drive the lesson home emphatically....

Yesteryear’s yield

Invest in risky assets. Leverage those assets by 4.6:1. Pay a 91/2% dividend yield. Sleep tight. Actually, these days, thoughtful gropers after very high yields tend to toss and turn. They are beginning to wonder about the staying power of the mainstay assets of the post-millennial debt boom: low-rated bank loans, commercial real-estate mortgages, residential mortgage-backed securities and, of course, collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, which aggregate slices of the former claims. Alan Greenspan was recently quoted as saying that finance has gotten a bit more complicated. For once, the Maestro and Grant's see eye-to-eye. . . .

Bladex delivers

"We represent a great investment opportunity," Jaime Rivera, chief executive officer of Banco Latinoamericano de Exportaciones S.A., better known as Bladex, declared in an appearance at the New York Stock Exchange 2-1/2 years ago. Not everyone believed it. The supranational wholesale trade bank was still struggling under the weight of defaulted Argentine debt.

Cover your ratings

Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch are out in force to respond to a clamoring marketplace: If the snowball of low-rated mortgage trouble keeps rolling, investors would like to know, whom might it squash? The agencies have replied in a way that, to us, sounds a little like this: "Well, it could be bad--very bad. And if it does turn out to be very bad, don't forget who warned you. But it probably won't be so bad as all that. And, if it isn't, don't forget whose ratings held up under critical scrutiny." Pretty clearly, structured finance is too important to be left to the structured-finance experts. This is everybody's business....

27 hours on a plane

Not a little of life's continuing education takes place at 35,000 feet in the air. Especially conducive to study is the semester-length round-trip flight to Tokyo from New York. Once the aircraft door closes, it's just you and the crying babies and the books you've brought. On this particular journey, your editor opened up John W. Dower's "Embracing Defeat: Japan in the Wake of World War II" (Norton, 1999). It proved an excellent intercontinental traveling companion. The more than 500 pages of text contain some of the most harrowing facts you've ever read. Even the end notes are good for an occasional shock. . . .

Central bankers on the head of a pin

Two Fridays ago, Governor Frederic Mishkin of the Federal Reserve Board proposed that the Fed could live with a 2% "core" inflation rate. Ten days later, William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, begged to differ with his learned colleague in Washington. . .

March 23, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 06

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A short digression on ancient history

"One can only marvel," Ronald Utt, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, was quoted as saying in Tuesday's Investor's Business Daily, "[when Congress] sees a disaster sweeping through financial markets and tries to figure out how it can be a part of it." Utt was referring to legislative plans to cut off the flow of private credit to nonprime borrowers. But the four-decade peak in residential mortgage foreclosures has other political minds racing in different directions. . . .

99.1% alchemy

George Soros wrote about the alchemy of finance. We now write about the alchemy of debt ratings. The readers of Grant's have seen for themselves how a stack of non-investment-grade mortgage slices can be rearranged to form a collateralized debt obligation. And they have stared in amazement at the improvements that this mysterious process can effect in the credit ratings of the slices. More than you might suppose are reappraised as triple-A. Now begins a voyage of discovery into the commercial real-estate wing of structured finance....

Invest in Hugo Chavez

Hugo Chavez, president (and much, much more) of Venezuela, has espoused many ideas, one of which is communism. "I'm very much of Trotsky's line--permanent revolution," said Chavez a few months back. The consequences of communism are rarely bullish in the financial way, but you wouldn't know it from the pricing of Venezuela's dollar bonds. . . .

CDO insurance machine

Bermuda-based Security Capital Assurance (SCA on the Big Board) is the 2006 Monoline of the Year, according to International Project Finance Magazine. On the other hand--this just in!--Security Capital Assurance also happens to be the 2007 Smallish Financial Guaranty Stock to Avoid, according to Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Maybe International Project Finance and Grant's are both correct....

Another word for ‘wand’

"It is not a small issue," Alan Greenspan, the noted economic consultant, told the Futures Industry Association last week amidst the tumult in subprime mortgages. "If we could wave a wand and prices go up 10%, the subprime problem would disappear." While sitting at the head of the table of the Federal Reserve Board, Greenspan virtually held that wand in his own hands. It was called the "printing press." Now, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has his hands on the same dollar-production machinery. But there's no gainsaying the point that fast-rising house prices would rescue most struggling borrowers....

As specific a forecast as you’ll read here

Grant's has been a fine one for waving in front of the Federal Reserve the mounting evidence of a shambles in mortgage credit. Counting these debt troubles as a bigger monetary consideration than the slightly elevated inflation rate, we have expected a lower funds rate and a steeper yield curve. Off and on over the past turbulent weeks, we almost believed we were going to be right.

March 9, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 05

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Memo to markets: We’re on our own

"Three out of four mortgages that are made are made by a person who is not employed by a bank or savings and loan," said Federal Reserve governor Susan Bies in a speech last month before the intercontinental stock-selling competition got under way in earnest. Not quite washing her hands of the tumult in subprime mortgages, but not really sounding very sympathetic, either, the soon-to-be-retired Bies went on to insist that, because of the securitization and wide distribution of mortgage credit, the world is a safer place. We're not sure it's safer. We would say it's less predictable. Certainly, it is less familiar.

Water stock

The value restoration project, a.k.a. "correction," is a godsend for those who kept their hands in their pockets as (THIS COMPANY) ascended. Happily for them, the company's uninvested admirers, the stock price has lately made excellent progress to the downside. COMPANY'S principal holding is (##), a developer of water rights in the American Southwest. These two companies are the subjects under discussion; Grant's is bullish on both. . . .

Wheezing CDO machine

First came the mortgage, then the mortgage-backed security and finally--what's this about America in decline?--the collateralized debt obligation. Individual mortgages are hard enough to value. Mortgage-backed securities are that much more difficult. And securities collateralized by mortgage-backed securities--i.e., CDOs--are the very devil. But the devil got his due in 2006, when, according to J.P. Morgan, $769 billion of CDOs came into the world. By the looks of things, the world could have done with less....

Sell Moody’s again

The award for the least remunerative analysis of Nov. 22, 2002, goes to none other than Grant's for the bearish article we published on Moody's (MCO on the Big Board). We wrote in the wake of the Enron bankruptcy. The rating agencies had conspicuously not predicted it. The recently enacted Sarbanes-Oxley law seemed to open the ratings field to new competition. And we thought we could read in the weakening pace of debt issuance a sign that the over-leveraged U.S. economy was going to need many fewer new bond ratings. Yet Moody's, the only freestanding public ratings business, traded at 24 times earnings....

No contagion here

Valassis Communications, an undisputed leader in a field you wouldn't want to enter, managed to borrow $540 million in speculative-grade notes at a price to yield a mere 8-1/4% on the day the stock market fell out of bed. That a junk-grade issuer was able to borrow at all while the Dow was dropping by 400 points is remarkable enough. That it was able to borrow at a cost fully 50 basis points less than observers had expected, right up until the time of the pricing, is amazing. That it was able to borrow in order to finance the acquisition of a company that, according to Valassis itself, was run by knaves or fools, can hardly be believed. Yet it happened....

We are subprime

"It's not just subprime," Richard X. Bove, analyst with Punk, Ziegel & Co., pointed out on Tuesday in a new report on spreading credit difficulties. While the levels of defaults and delinquencies are low, he noted, "it's the direction that counts. Bad loans. . .are rising." Prompted by Bove, GRANT'S conducted its own survey. Our report follows....

February 23, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 04

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The ABCs of credit contagion

Now unfolding is a speculation on the meaning of the disturbances in subprime. Some will avert their eyes. To these reluctant readers, we say: Credit is cyclical. It flows and it ebbs. It has been flowing since 2002, to the point today of nearly overflowing its banks (and hedge funds). A future cyclical contraction is a certainty, and it's got to start somewhere. In the possibly anomalous, possibly not anomalous, sell-off in less-than-prime-rated mortgage slices, the down cycle may have already begun....

Strength to Hercules

"Good things happen to cheap stocks," is the value investor's credo, but not all cheap stocks are equally value-laden. Cyclical businesses trading at low multiples to what look like peak earnings are famously treacherous. Hercules Offshore (HERO on the Nasdaq), though cheap and cyclical, is also, we believe, just plain cheap....

Help wanted

The world's biggest monoline financial guarantor, insures $(#) billion of debt on the strength of $(#) billion of equity. It insures municipal bonds, structured finance obligations and derivatives. Among the latter, as of year-end 2005, were $(#) billion of collateralized debt obligations. CDOs accounted for (#)% of the company's book of insured assets, up from zero percent in 2000. So it's of more than passing interest when this giant guarantor of other people's credit becomes the object of the regulators' scrutiny, or when a pair of senior executives resigns on the same day....

Harmful side effects

On February 16, the editor of Grant's testified at a hearing on monetary policy before the House Committee on Financial Services. His written statement follows: The Federal Reserve figuratively prints the thing we all want more of. Why so little of this manna seems to find its way into deserving pockets is at the top of today's agenda. Under the law, the Fed has a dual mandate. It must protect against inflation, as defined, and promote full employment. But Congress and the American people have come to expect much more from our central bank than even that tall order. We ask, in addition, that it make an inherently risky world safe. We expect the Fed to deliver us from the consequences of hedge-fund explosions, sovereign-debt defaults, bear stock markets, bank failures, deflations and other financial and economic vicissitudes. It can't be done....

Subprime companies

Last week, the editor of Grant's addressed the Harvard Business School Centennial Conference on Private Equity at the Metropolitan Club in New York. His remarks, edited to include a few things he wished he had said, follow: What's in a brand? Why, what's not in a brand? Take "private equity." What a beautiful phrase it is! What a dignified and substantial image it connotes! Imagine if, instead, the industry had had to labor under the stigma of the tarnished moniker "leveraged buyout." One shudders. ... Brands sell, but numbers count. My thesis today is that the numbers in the U.S. credit markets don't add up. . . .

What ‘Helicopter Ben’?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, testifying before Congress last week (he was the other witness), sounded nothing like the deflation fighter of yesteryear. "Overall," said the chairman, "the U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace this year and next, with growth strengthening somewhat as the drag from housing diminishes." While dovish enough on inflation to send Wall Street into temporary raptures, Bernanke also sought to justify the 5-1/4% funds rate. Students of forward-looking economic data may find him unpersuasive.

February 9, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 03

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Real estate 2007: Overvaluation, overvaluation, etc.

REITs are the subject under discussion, and a timely one it is now that the smoke is about to blow away from the final battle to overpay for Equity Office Properties. . . .

Here come the downgrades

It's no front-page news that the 2006-vintage subprime-mortgage originations are stacking up as the all-time worst, or that the lowest-rated tranche of the newly issued subprime mortgage index dropped like a stone. . . .

Tortilla flat

For the Mexican-food-loving, ethanol-hating hunter of investment value, Gruma S.A. de C.V., a Monterey (Mexico)-based maker of tortillas and corn flour, is one of a kind. Now unfolding is an analysis of a company whose No. 1 estimable quality might be its. . .

In the regulators' court

News, on January 29, of the proposed merger of [two companies] lifted shares of the intended partners by a quarter (not a quarter-point, but 25%). Following is a status report on [company], object of a bullish analysis on page one of the October 6 issue of Grant's. . . .

Dear partner, you win

A Boston-based company last year delivered greater-than-market returns with little more than half its capital at risk. "Dear Partner," the 2006 year-end letter leads off, "We are delighted to report a healthy profit for the month of December and a very strong gain for the year. . . ." Then the tone changes. . . .

Dinar field report

"Ali" the barber, let us call him, works 20 days a month at Camp Fallujah, Anbar Province, Iraq. He spends the rest of his time with his wife and children in Baghdad. Ali is hopeful about the Iraqi currency, according to a U.S. Marine officer who e-mailed this publication in response to a query from her father, the editor: "[Ali] says that the dinar has taken a slight downturn in the past few weeks, but that people in Baghdad are saying that, in five years, the exchange rate will be one-to-one. He recalled getting three dollars to the dinar once upon a time. He says that you are a very smart man to recognize the value of the dinar. Also, I don't have any more split ends." What is sometimes described as the world's worst country might conceivably be printing the world's strongest currency. . . .

Credit to the dogs

"Reader Justin Blomberg, who thought he had seen everything, recently saw puppies offered for sale on credit. Naturally, he e-mailed us, and we investigated. . . .

Joe and Jane, stay away; all others welcome

"Nearly all domestic banks and all foreign institutions that had eased terms on commercial real estate loans over the past 12 months cited more-aggressive competition from other banks or nonbank lenders as the most important reason for having done so." So finds the latest survey of senior loan officers by the Federal Reserve Board.

January 26, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 02

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Up with the world's worst currency

The yen, like Howard Stern, gives offense impartially. It puts off everyone for one reason or another--except for the people who borrow it. These days, it repulses volatility traders and value buyers alike. It upsets the true believers in central-bank independence and a certain kind of monetary theorist. Costing next to nothing to borrow, and reliably losing value against the dollar and euro, it brings profit and pleasure to only one sizable financial constituency. We speak of the far-flung Army of Leveraged Speculators. Here begins a reappraisal of the world's monetary doormat. . . .

Slowest bear market

On January 17, the president and chief executive officer of Lennar Corp. allowed himself to express the hope that the worst is over for home building: "Uncertain market conditions make it difficult to provide a 2007 earnings goal," said Stuart Miller in the fourth-quarter press release. "While we know that the margin in our backlog will result in lower profitability in the first half of 2007, we believe that if the current environment of strong employment, low interest rates and a healthy economy continues, and the market for new homes demonstrates traditional, seasonal improvement, we will meet or exceed our 2006 earnings of $3.69 a share." It appears that Miller had not yet familiarized himself with the Fed's June 2006 working paper, "The Price of Residential Land in Large U.S. Cities". . .

Cadres perform about-face

Two weeks ago, the Chinese minister of commerce, Bo Xilai, declared that the towering Chinese trade surplus was bad--for China, that is. Here was a new departure for an official whose job description was previously that of promoting Chinese exports--and therefore, necessarily, of talking up the accumulation by China of hundreds of billions of dollars in export earnings (the sum now tops $1 trillion). . . .

Value in China

No doubt, commercial banking in China is a growth business. There can be no doubt because the mainland banks are priced for a boom already. Hong Kong-listed shares of Bank of China, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank change hands at between 3.5 and 4.5 times book value and at 25 to 30 times earnings. You'll remember Bank of China (Grant's, June 2). It's the one whose "former chairman and president and the former general manager of our New York branch was convicted of accepting over RMB1 million in bribes in exchange for assisting certain companies with obtaining loan approvals." There was no word on the character of the tellers. . .

I scream, you scream, we all scream

"The junk-bond market is undergoing a sort of gentrification, appealing to more conservative investors, who, like many in the current low-yield environment, are starved for higher returns," reported the credit markets column in Saturday's Wall Street Journal. "Conservative Investors Line Up for Junk Bonds," was the crowning headline. At least the desperate buyers have retained enough self-control to form a queue. . . .

January 12, 2007, Vol. 25, No. 01

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Don Kohn, say hello to Barney Frank

"I am a central banker to my core," Donald L. Kohn, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, said in a talk in Atlanta on Monday, "so I know that somewhere, somehow, something will go wrong." You don't have to be a central banker to recognize that homely truth. Fathers, mothers, generals and short sellers understand it all too well. The future never ceases to surprise.

Junk in a mirror

Anyone can buy exposure to credit risk. The trick is to sell it or hedge against it. Professional investors can always find a way. They can sell short junk bonds or mortgages, or--more likely these days--buy protection against adversity in the derivatives markets. Fine for them, but what about the rest of us? Well, the lay credit bear is disenfranchised no longer. A mutual fund is up and running to deliver what amounts to short-side exposure to the high-yield bond market. . . .

Radio playback

Late last month, Radio One (ROIAK on the Nasdaq), the nation's top radio network catering to African-American listeners, sold its underperforming Boston station, WKAF-FM (formerly WILD-FM). To read between the lines of the latest Radio One 10-Q report, the station produces cash flow as a rock does blood. Yet it fetched $30 million, cash. A befuddling business, radio. . . .

Mortgage ebb tide

It was the marginal lender who financed the marginal borrower. And it was the marginal borrower who stepped up to pay the extra dollar for the incremental house. Such was the way of the boom. Now, the marginal, or subprime, lender is withdrawing and so, too, is the marginal borrower. Following is an attempt to handicap the spreading bust. . . .

Tale of two price curves

Mild weather is the principal cause of the breakdown in the price of crude oil, according to news reports, but we blame money--and have for a while (see Grant's, March 24, 2006). . . .