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Connecting fact with perception, perception with valuation and valuation with risk. “Hold on to your hats!” is the investment conclusion.
It’s an ill wind that blows no portfolio any good. A silver lining in the gathering storm clouds of triple-B-rated corporate bonds.
History may remember these times as a golden age of invention and entrepreneurship, but those flattering descriptors should come with an asterisk. Introducing the bezzle’s first cousin.
Half of the moon is dark, but 85% of the leveraged-loan market is shrouded. Shedding a new bright light on the credit profile of that $1.1 trillion accident-waiting-to-happen.
A little-known fact about unicorns is that they feed on interest rates. They like low, little rates – the tinier, the better. What do unicorns, the humans of private equity and the bulls of Wall Street all have in common?
If the free-and-easy portion of the credit cycle is behind us, better days – at least, for the intrepid, value-seeking readers of Grant’s – may be at hand.
On Wall Street, success begets failure. Take a good idea, emulate it and embellish it, drive it into the ground like a tomato stake. Voilà: It’s a bad idea. How a great idea of the last recession is poised to menace the next one.
A critical survey of the $3 trillion industry that will supposedly save the bacon of the country’s underfunded pension plans and income-starved endowments. We all live inside the private-equity force field.
The federal inquest into the credit smashup of, let us say, 2019 will not overlook leveraged loans. Testimony will uncover the facts that were as plain as day in 2018.
“Big” and “asset-light” are the reigning ideas in the restaurant franchise business. “I’m here to tell you this Shangri-La doesn’t go on forever.”
The zombies didn’t just climb up out of the graves by themselves.
Every financial epoch has its avatar. For this epoch, we nominate a certain mammoth, leveraged, complex and speculative business a half world away. “The smartest guy in the room.”
Tomorrow’s fallen angels come thick and fast in the corporate bond market. Not quite junk, barely investment grade, is the flavor of the cycle. Creditors may be senior claimants in the capital structure, but they don’t stand at the head of the queue for corporate emoluments. Marking the wise words of Graham and Dodd.