Fraught moments in finance
—the 30-year Grant's highlight reel
The fictitious Mr. Market is the moody gent who pays up in boom times and sells for a pittance in bad times. His unbalanced personality provides the level-headed investor with opportunity—if only that investor can identify the relevant cyclical signposts.
Which is exactly where Grant’s comes in. The anomalies of finance are our business. To uncover good ideas and expose bad ones is our stock in trade. Knowing that markets are cyclical, we strive to keep our wits about us when old man Market is in transports—or down in the dumps.
The cycles come thick and fast these days. The past 30-odd years have delivered flyaway bull markets (e.g., high-yield debt in 1988, stocks in 1999, houses in 2005) and deep, desponding bear markets (e.g., high-yield debt in 1990, stocks in 2009, houses in 2011). Fortunes were made and lost at every juncture.
To spot the telltale signs of excess—either to the upside or the downside—is a skill we’ve been honing since we started publishing in 1983. To identify the next important event is the main prize, and we try hard to win it.
Not infrequently—as the following excerpts attest—we do.
Below please find a baker's dozen of articles Grant's produced at some of the critical junctures in the past generation. Click the link to see what we had to say when opportunity knocked.
1. On the cusp of credit troubles, May 13, 1988
—the worst securities that money can buy
2. The Japanese stock market peaks, July 7, 1989
—how to play the coming collapse
3. The saga of 120 Broadway, April 24, 1992
—the biography of a grand old New York skyscraper and a primer on the nature of real estate
4. Internet mania, June 4, 1999
—rare persepctive on the value of transformative innovation
5. Henry Singleton, capitalist, February 28, 2003
—lessons drawn from the life and career of a great investor
6. Rooftop house prices, June 3, 2005
—there was really no mistaking it, though many did
7. Subprime mortgage alert, September 8, 2006
—one of the earliest warnings about the debt that ate Wall Street
8. Wall Street death wish, October 20, 2006
—when even the white shoe firms were playing with fire
9. Bullish on credit, December 12, 2008
—opportunity abounded at the bottom
10. Bullish on financials, March 6, 2009
—they didn't all go out of business, after all
11. Bullish on thrifts, October 29, 2010
—well-capitalized savings institutions on sale for a song
12. Bullish on houses, December 2, 2011
—a kind word for castoff real estate
13. Bullish on India, March 21, 2014
—an early sighting of one of the potentially great emerging growth stories.